Each Tuesday, FanDuel runs a popular promotion that allows each user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether or not the player you bet on homered, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2021 was 2.44, you will receive an average of $12.20 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run-yes prop.
Here are my favorite selections for Tuesday’s slate:
Rockies vs Phillies, 6:45 p.m.
Pick: Kyle Schwarber +400
Schwarber hasn't been incredible so far this season, but he's shown the ability to grill the ball.
Kyle Schwarber with a 468 foot TANK to tie the game at 4! pic.twitter.com/ME2P6PmScU
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 20, 2022
Schwarber has now gone yard four times in his 16 games this year, a 25% hit rate that would imply +300 odds rather than +400. He's also hit two deep doubles that likely should've cleared the fence at Citizens Bank Park.
Image credit: Baseball Savant
Plus, after his blowup and ejection against Angel Hernandez Sunday night, Schwarber might have a little extra motivation to go deep tonight.
In 15 lifetime PAs against German Marquez — Colorado's starter today — Schwarber is 6-for-13 with two home runs and just a 17.4% whiff rate. Schwarber posted a 92.4 mph average exit velocity and a 23.5 degree average launch angle in those ABs, so he's proven he can thwart Marquez's GB-heavy approach.
Schwarber's exit velocity and hard-hit rate are down slightly in the young season. But, he's posted at least a 92 mph avg. exit velocity and a 50% hard-hit rate in each of the last three seasons, so I'm not expecting him to stay down for long.
The Schwarber positive regression train starts tonight with a dinger against Colorado.
Cubs vs Braves, 7:20 p.m.
Pick: Adam Duvall +360
Everyone's favorite soft-tossing, zone-working, groundball-forcing Cubs pitcher is on the mound today for the Cubs. Marcus Stroman will try and shut down a fierce Atlanta lineup and get the Cubs one game closer to .500.
But there's a problem. Stroman hasn't been forcing soft contact, working in the zone, or forcing ground balls. Instead he…
- Ranks in the seventh percentile of pitchers in both avg. exit velocity allowed and hard-hit rate allowed;
- Is walking over 4.00 batters per nine innings;
- Has a ground ball rate 7% lower than his career average;
- Has posted an astonishing 30% HR/FB rate.
Stroman will see positive regression in some of these areas. But, these are concerning numbers nonetheless.
Those issues may become magnified when you realize the wind is blowing 10mph straight out to center field in Atlanta today.
Which batter is going to take advantage?
Well, in six ABs against Stroman, Adam Duvall has posted a whopping 99.8 mph average exit velocity. He's whiffed just 7.7% of the time in those ABs and has an xSLG close to 1.000.
It's perfect. Duvall can easily barrel up Stroman today, get the ball in the air, and let the wind take it out of the park.
But even if Duvall can't take Stroman deep, he's due for a homer against any pitcher. His 92.2 mph average exit velocity ranks in the 85th percentile of hitters, and his hard-hit rate is in the 74th percentile.
It's time for Duvall to get his first home run of the year.
