Each Tuesday, FanDuel runs a popular promotion that allows each user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether or not the player you bet on homered, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2021 was 2.44, you will receive an average of $12.20 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run yes prop. Even though home runs have been down in the 2022 season thus far, the promotion remains +EV, and there are signs that homers are trending up in the warmer months again.
If you want to learn more on how Dinger Tuesday works, here’s an explainer.
Here’s my favorite selections for Tuesday’s slate:
Giants vs. Phillies, 6:40 p.m. ET
Pick: Evan Longoria +380
There’s plenty of power in both of these lineups, and on a warm night in Philadelphia, you can expect the ball to be flying like it was in Monday’s six-homer thriller that went to extra innings. Given the high total and ballpark, this should be at the top of your Dinger Tuesday list.
Evan Longoria is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now, with a .444 xwOBA in his last 50 plate appearances. Based on rolling xwOBA, no player in the sport has risen more in the last 10 or so games. Longoria has already barreled nine balls in 35 batted balls, which is too small of a sample to draw meaningful conclusions from.
But that Barrel Rate would put him among the elite in all of baseball. He’s facing a lefty in Ranger Suarez who’s been hit much harder in the zone this season, too.
Angels vs. Yankees, 7:05 p.m. ET
Pick: Anthony Rizzo +480
This game naturally has a ton of options with lower payouts with the two biggest sluggers on both teams — Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani.
Rizzo gets an excellent matchup with Noah Syndergaard, who is due for a ton of negative regression in the coming weeks. Syndergaard has seen his fastball velocity and effectiveness drop considerably, and his expected indicators suggest his ERA should be higher than four.
Rizzo has a Barrel Rate over 10% this season for the first time in his career and gets the short porch in right field to pull into. I expect a bunch of home runs in this game and thus am looking further down the board for value beyond the big four hitters.
Nationals vs. Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET
PIck: J.D. Davis +730
It is hard to pass up on Pete Alonso given the pitching matchup. Patrick Corbin has an xERA over six, and his fastball has been hit as hard as any fastball in the majors thus far. I’m going further down the board though because Alonso is below +300 and going with J.D. Davis at +730. Davis crushes left-handed pitching (career .780 OPS) and has had a ton of success against Corbin in the past. He has three homers and two doubles off of him in 15 at-bats
Reds vs. Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET
Pick: Rafael Devers +430
Devers has been a Dinger Tuesday favorite this season because of his success on Tuesdays and against right-handed pitching. Devers gets a favorable matchup with Luis Castillo, who has seen a significant drop off in his fastball effectiveness and isn’t missing nearly as many bats with his offspeed and breaking pitches. Eno Sarris of The Athletic has him rated as a below-average pitcher based on his stuff thus far.
Devers has posted a career high 12.6% Barrel Rate, and given that he doesn’t walk or strikeout often, he’s not going to waste a lot of at bats without attempting to drive the ball.
Boston hasn’t seen the reduction in homers that the other parks across the northeast have seen this year, and the ball should be flying on Tuesday night given the warm temperatures at Fenway Park.
Brewers vs. Cubs, 8:10 p.m. ET
Pick: Christian Yelich +450
There’s a forecasted 16 mph wind out to right field at Wrigley Field, and that has a bigger impact in Chicago than any other ballpark in MLB. The Brewers are facing a left-handed pitcher and have a bunch of big right-handed hitters. But all of the numbers on them are deflated across the board because of this, so I’m going to target a left-handed hitter anyway. Christian Yelich’s Barrel Rate has recovered to 12% after it dropped considerably last year.
He’s also recovered his Launch Angle and Hard-Hit Rate, which will help his home run power. Yelich will face a lefty for a couple at-bats but should get looks against righties later in the game. With the wind blowing out to right field, I’ll take Yelich.
Marlins vs. Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET
Editor's note: Tuesday's game between the Marlins and Rockies has been postponed.
Pick: Jorge Soler +330
Coors Field returns to the Tuesday card this week and will always be on my list of top picks when it’s on the schedule. 10 is the highest total on the board today, and there’s no real bad option here. I’m taking the best Barrel Rate — Jorge Soler — against German Marquez.
First off, I bet the Marlins to win the game and thus want a Marlin on my card. Soler crushes pitches in the zone as well as any hitter in baseball, and Marquez has career lows in Strikeout Rate and Swinging Strike Rate and consequently is getting hit more on zone pitches than ever.
