We went 1-1 on Thursday, with the win coming on a plus-money pick and the loss on a half-unit bet, for a slight profit.
We've got a much bigger slate on Friday, so let's see what we can find.
I have three MLB NRFI & YRFI picks and model predictions for Friday, May 24.
Friday MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Model Predictions (5/24)
Starting Pitchers: James Paxton vs. Graham Ashcraft
We like Dodgers YRFIs, given that they're the second-best overall offense in baseball with arguably the best top three.
They have a solid matchup with Graham Ashcraft, whose ERA and expected indicators are all somewhat north of 4.00.
What really drives this one is the game total of 10 and the matchup for the Reds. Their wRC+ as a team rises ten points when facing lefties like Paxton, and they have top-of-the-order talent despite struggling overall offensively.
Paxton brings a 2.94 ERA into the game, but he's been incredibly lucky. His expected FIP, expected ERA, and SIERA are all north of five. Those are pretty likely to regress tonight as he pitches in one of baseball's best hitting parks.
Maximize your Angels vs Astros action with our DraftKings promo code.
Starting Pitchers: Corbin Burnes vs. Chris Flexen
We took the YRFI in Thursday's Baltimore-Chicago game and were surprisingly bailed out by the White Sox's anemic offense.
I'm not projecting much chance of that today, as Chicago battles Cy Young candidate Corbin Burnes.
The risk, of course, is on Baltimore's side, given their winnable matchup on paper with Chris Flexen. Flexen has an awful 6.16 ERA as a starter this season — but that number drops to 1.96 in his first time through the order.
Flexen's excellent splits are driving the projection here, as he's been much better early in games than late.
Starting Pitchers: Justin Verlander vs. Ross Stripling
The Astros top-five — and top-heavy — offense is going up against Ross Stripling tonight. Stripling has a 5.19 overall ERA and a 5.03 first-time-through-the-order ERA.
While there's an argument for playing the Astros' team-specific line, the +160 odds aren't all that great. In addition, Oakland has a slightly above-average offense against righties, with their first four hitters all having somewhat above-average stats this season.
The matchup against Verlander isn't what it used to be. He has a 3.97 ERA through six starts in 2024, but his SIERA and expected FIP are both above five.
That gives Oakland a credible enough threat here — enough to take the full game YRFI.
Maximize your MLB NRFI picks with our FanDuel bonus code.
