Ladies and gentlemen, the weekend.
Another Friday in April means another opportunity to take a look at our MLB best bets from Tuesday's episode of "Payoff Pitch."
Action Network's Tanner McGrath and Jim Turvey broke down two picks for Friday, including a bet on Phillies vs. Pirates, and a red-hot player prop in Reds vs. White Sox.
Read on for both breakdowns, and check out the full episode of "Payoff Pitch" below.
Friday MLB Picks, Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 p.m. | Phillies F5 ML |
  | 7:40 p.m. | Will Benson Props |
Phillies F5 ML (-155) vs. Pirates
6:40 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
I would take this line up to -170.
The Phillies are facing a red-hot Pittsburgh team. Cristopher Sanchez is a guy I have always loved and I have thought he has been underrated throughout his career. His changeup is one of the league’s filthiest offerings. He forces whiffs and groundballs galore.
His slider is OK and his sinker lagged behind last year, but the Stuff+ on that pitch this season is a whopping 118. I think this three-pitch mix is really working, but his ERA is a full run above expected, which I think will regress back down. The Pirates have been good but I also expect some regression.
I think the Phillies' offense will blow up any day now. They tend to start slow but I expect them to have some success against Bailey Falter. He has a 5.40 ERA and has walked more guys than he has struck out in this early season.
I am bullish on the Pirates’ pen so I will just stick with the first five.
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Will Benson Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-145) | Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110) | HR (+290) at White Sox
7:40 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
By Jim Turvey
Chris Flexen is going for the White Sox and he is not good at all.
Will Benson has quietly turned into one of the best batters against right-handed pitchers. If you sort last year’s wRC+ leaderboard, he is fourth among hitters who had the same number or more plate appearances. The guys who precede him are Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Corbin Carroll.
He is in a good spot in this Cincinnati lineup and facing Flexen, who has picked up right where he left off last season. He is dead-last in Stuff+ and his fastball has a negative Stuff+, which is pretty hard to do.
Benson’s numbers are up in most categories from a season ago and I think this is a perfect matchup for him.
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