I'm targeting two pitchers in the player prop market for today's loaded Friday slate with all 30 teams in action.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Taijuan Walker Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)
| Mets vs. Marlins | Marlins -135 |
| First Pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Taijuan Walker has had a fine season as he's kept his ERA under 3.00 while winning games for the Mets (5-2 personal record).
But there are some concerning underlying statistics. His xERA and xFIP are approaching 4.00, his .278 BABIP is a little low, and his Strikeout Rate is way down.
After three straight seasons of posting a K/9 between 8.00 and 9.00, that number is down to 6.67 through 11 starts this season. He failed to cash this number in eight of his first nine starts, and his CSW% ranks in just the 25th percentile of qualified pitchers (25.8%).
However, I don't expect this to be the case forever. Projections still have him finishing the season with close to 8.00 K/9, with the low end of that spectrum being around 7.55. His strikeout numbers should go up.
For example, Walker has struck out 19 batters over his last two starts. He posted 97 pitches in each start with a CSW rate of over 32%.
That second start was against the Miami Marlins, his opponent today.
Walker's main strikeout pitch is the splitter, something he's throwing more than ever before because of its high Whiff Rate (31.9%) and its -8 Run Value.
The Marlins are 24th this season in Weighted Splitter Runs Created (-3.0), and current Miami batters have struck out 21 times in 72 ABs against Walker lifetime (26.9%).
This is a very good matchup for Walker.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Walker for 5.2 strikeouts today, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections have him closer to 4.8.
But either way, I think he strikes out plenty of Marlins today.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-115)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
German Marquez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-165)
| Rockies vs. Twins | Twins -165 |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
The juice is high on this line, but there's too much to like about German Marquez's chances today to pass on it.
Marquez has crushed this number in 10 of his 13 starts this season, and he's recorded at least six strikeouts in six of his last eight starts. Since the beginning of 2021, Marquez has cashed over 4.5 Ks in 33 of 45 starts, a 73% hit rate that implies -275 odds to the over.
It's not that Marquez has elite strikeout numbers, but he eats up innings for a Rockies squad that needs it. Despite his 6.19 ERA, Marquez has tossed at least six innings in six of his last seven starts. He'll get plenty of strikeout opportunities, and his 8.14 K/9 implies he should get to this number by the sixth.
Meanwhile, the Twins have posted a top-10 Strikeout Rate against RHPs on the season (23.2%), and those numbers have only increased in the last month (23.8%).
FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark Marquez for 4.9 strikeouts today, while our Action Labs Player Props tool projects him for a whopping 5.7. That gives us enough value to back Marquez at this low number.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-165)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
