I went big on this column yesterday with four huge picks, two of them at plus-money, and fell on my face with a 1-3 day.
Let's bounce back today with two +EV pitcher props.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Tyler Wells Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+125)
| Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles | Orioles -140 |
| First Pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
It's a scary prospect backing Tyler Wells. The righty has gone over this line just once in his 16 starts this season while striking out 5.95 batters per nine innings.
However, there are some things to like about Wells' game.
First, Wells struck out over 10 batters per nine at every level of the minors coming up with Minnesota. He also posted 10.26 K/9 in 44 relief appearances with the O's last season. He's proven he can miss bats in the past, and ZiPS projections have him upping his K/9 to 8.41 by year's end.
For example, Wells just struck out seven Twins over just 90 pitches with a 31% CSW rate. He also ranks in the 94th percentile of pitchers in Fastball Spin Rate. Plus, all his secondary pitches have a Whiff Rate north of 23%, and his changeup is getting nearly a third of batters to swing and miss.
Our Action Labs Player Props projections mark Wells for a whopping 5.8 strikeouts, which is why I'm willing to take a shot on the extra strikeout with plus-money odds when the rest of the market is at 3.5.
But the most exciting part about this prop is the Angels' offense, which is striking out at the highest rate vs. RHPs this season. While the Halos are striking out at just a 26.8% rate against righties this season, that number is up over 30% during the past month.
The Halos couldn't hit water if they fell out of a boat. Mike Trout — the best player on the planet — has struck out 13 times in his last 24 PAs (54.1%). Everyone in Anaheim is vulnerable.
Wells tossed 49 pitches over three relief appearances against the Halos last season, recording four strikeouts with a 27% CSW rate. I think he will easily punch out five if he throws 70 or more pitches.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (+125)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Adam Wainwright Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)
| Philadephia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals | Cardinals +110 |
| First Pitch | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
The consistency from Adam Wainwright is astounding. Uncle Charlie threw between 100 and 115 pitches in six of his last seven starts, and he's 40 years old!
Waino doesn't get guys to miss anymore, with his 6.8% Swinging-Strike Rate being lower than 94% of qualified pitchers. However, he knows how to paint the corners and pick up strikes, with his 28.3% CSW Rate sitting just above league average.
But between the consistency of his strike rates and the consistency of his pitch counts, Wainwright has cashed this 4.5 number in 10 of his 16 starts this season. That includes a current streak of six straight starts with five or more strikeouts.
Wainwright will also have home-field advantage, and that seems to mean a lot for him this season:
- Wainwright home starts: 44 IP, .276 wOBA, 2.25 ERA, 8.80 K/9
- Wainwright road starts: 52.2 IP, .344 wOBA, 4.10 ERA, 6.49 K/9
In his last three home starts, Wainwright struck out 10 Padres (35% CSW), seven Reds (29% CSW), and nine Marlins (30% CSW).
Given his age, I think sleeping in his own bed makes a difference.
Waino seems to have an advantage over Philadelphia as well. He picked up five strikeouts over 103 pitches at Citizens Bank earlier this season and punched out eight Phillies over 107 pitches at home last season. He posted a 34% CSW Rate in both starts.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Wainwright for 5.7 Ks tonight, providing us with a 10.2% edge over the line DraftKings is offering us.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-130)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
