Happy Friday!
Using the Action Labs Player Props tool, I've found value on three pitcher props tonight. We have three picks ranging from 7:10 p.m. EST to 9:40 p.m. EST, meaning you can spend your entire Friday night sweating out strikeouts.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Shane McClanahan under 7.5 Strikeouts (-150)
| White Sox @ Rays | |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Shane McClanahan is having a career year. He's blossoming into the starter every Rays fan dreamed of after he jumped from Double-A straight to MLB following the absent Minor League season in 2020.
He's posted a 2.01 ERA and a 1.83 xFIP while striking out 12.50 batters per nine innings. The Rays are 7-3 in McClanahan starts and he's pitched at least six innings in six of those starts.
He's picked up a bit of velocity on his fastball, which has produced a 28.7% Whiff rate so far this season.
But his development stems from suppressing exit velocities. Staying away from hard-hit balls was McClanahan's weakness last season, and his EV allowed is down almost four ticks year-over-year.
That's thanks in large part to his fastball and curveball.
Image credit: Baseball Savant
But … this line is too high. McClanahan's only cashed this over in half his starts this season, and in nine of 36 starts dating back to the beginning of 2021.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects McClanahan for 6.8 Ks, but FanGraphs' SaberSim projections mark McClanahan way down at 5.7.
Plus, he's facing a White Sox lineup that can still mash lefties. The White Sox are second this season in wRC+ against southpaws (122) and are striking out less than 20% of the time against that side over the last 30 days.
In 21 lifetime PAs against current White Sox hitters, McClanahan has recorded just four strikeouts.
I'm expecting another great start from McClanahan here. But it's going to be very hard to reach eight strikeouts, and the value is pretty clearly on the under.
Pick: Under 7.5 Ks (-150)
Action Labs Grade: 6/10
Max Fried over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
| Braves @ Rockies | |
| First Pitch | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
There are five NL pitchers who have recorded at least 1.5 fWAR this season.
Max Fried is one of those guys.
The Braves starter has become the team's ace (outside of rookie Kyle Wright), averaging more than six innings per start in his 10 this season. Fried's numbers don't pop off the page, but he's kept his FIP and xFIP under 3.00.
As alluded to, Fried is going to give you length. He has yet to pitch fewer than 5 1/3 innings this season and has gone over six IP in eight straight starts.
So, although Fried only strikes out about 8.5 batters per nine innings, he'll give you enough length to cash strikeout totals.
In fact, Fried has gone over 4.5 Ks in eight of 10 starts this season and in six straight. He's cashed this number in 32 of 43 starts dating back to the start of 2021, a 74% hit rate that implies -291 odds to the over.
Fried has yet to face the Rockies this season, but there's no reason to be scared. Over the last 30 days and against RHPs, Colorado has:
- The 13th-highest strikeout rate (21.7%)
- The 10th-lowest wRC+ (100)
- The fourth-lowest walk rate (6.5%)
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Fried for 5.6 Ks Friday evening, giving us a 10.5% edge over the line DraftKings is currently offering.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-125)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Nathan Eovaldi over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
| Red Sox @ Athletics | |
| First Pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
After finishing 2021 in the top-five among MLB pitchers in HR/9 allowed, Nathan Eovaldi has done nothing but give up the long ball this season.
Eovaldi allowed 15 HRs in 182 innings last season, Eovaldi has allowed 16 in just 57 innings so far. That's good for a whopping 2.51 HR/9, and 25.8% of his fly balls allowed have left the park.
That number will likely come down, and Eovaldi has still managed to keep his ERA under 4.00.
Because he's still striking out almost 10 batters per nine innings. Eovaldi's fastball regularly touches triple-digits, and he's upped the strikeout rate on his curveball and slider from last season.
Image credit: Baseball Savant
This is why his strikeout rate hasn't dropped below 25% in three straight seasons.
Eovaldi has cashed over 5.5 Ks in seven of his 10 starts this season and in 29 of 47 starts dating back to 2021. And on the road this year, Eovaldi's struck out at least six in four of five starts.
There's no reason to be afraid of Oakland, as the A's are striking out at the sixth-highest rate against RHPs this season (24%) while posting the second-lowest wRC+ (75).
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Eovaldi for 6.3 Ks today, while FanGraphs' SaberSim projections mark him for 5.9.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (-115)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
