Happy Friday!
Get your weekend started off right with two +EV pitcher props identified through our Action Labs projections. Using these projections, The Action Network's MLB player props team is 20-5 in their last 25 picks, picking up over 15 units of profit.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Patrick Sandoval Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-125)
| Angels vs. Tigers | Angels -140 |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Patrick Sandoval is a very intriguing young southpaw. He's turned into the Angels second-best pitcher behind Ohtani, regularly shoving quality starts.
Sandoval throws a pretty even three-pitch mix between his slider, fastball, and changeup. While his fastball forces almost no swings and misses, his slider has a 33.7% Whiff rate and his changeup has a whopping 46.1% Whiff rate. As a result, Sandoval is striking out close to 10 batters per nine innings.
Sandoval is just a little inconsistent. His xERA is over a point higher than his ERA and he's only cashed his strikeout total in eight of his 19 starts this season.
But Sandoval took on the Tigers last season and struck out nine over just 81 pitches. He posted a whopping 36% CSW rate in the start, getting both Miguel Cabrera and Jeimer Candelario to strikeout twice.
The Tigers are a horrific offense altogether, having a season-long wRC+ only higher than the Oakland Athletics. Javier Baez has been a bust and, now that they traded Robbie Grossman, Detroit has zero plus-hitters on the roster.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Sandoval for 7.0 strikeouts. FanGraphs SaberSim projections have him at 5.9. I'm expecting even more out of Sandoval in this start.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (-125)
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
Dylan Bundy Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-120)
| Rangers vs. Twins | Twins -140 |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Dylan Bundy is, typically, a guy I look to fade. Save a decent COVID-shortened 2020, he never caught on with either the Orioles or Angels, regularly finishing with an ERA above 5.00 and an xERA around 4.50.
However, Bundy has picked it up this season. His xERA is just 3.85 despite an unlucky 4.76 ERA, and his FIP/xFIP are slowly approaching 4.00.
I also like Bundy's matchup today.
Over the last two seasons, Bundy has cashed over 3.5 strikeouts in just 17 of his 43 starts. That's an absurdly low 40% rate, which would imply -153 odds to the under. However, he's faced the Rangers three times in that span and gone over all three times.
In those three starts, Bundy posted lines of:
- 4/19/2021: 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K, 33% CSW
- 8/5/2021: 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K, 30% CSW
- 7/10/2022: 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K, 25% CSW
But it's not like the Rangers are hard to figure out. They've posted the eighth highest strikeout rate against RHPs on the season (23.6%) and the ninth highest over the past month (24.1%). They allowed two of the three Oakland pitchers they faced to cash their strikeout totals.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Bundy for an absurd 5.6 strikeouts today, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark him for 4.8. Either way, you're getting plenty of value with this line.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-120)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
