Happy Friday, gamblers!
Walk into the weekend by adding these two +EV pitcher props onto your card. total-bases-and-more-for-cubs-vs-reds-thursday-august-11">Our Field of Dreams player props went 5-0 yesterday, so it's the perfect time to hop on the Action Labs train.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Cal Quantrill over 3.5 strikeouts (+100)
| Guardians @ Blue Jays | |
| First Pitch | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Cal Quantrill has been cruising past this line lately. He's cashed over 3.5 Ks in five straight starts, now having eclipsed four strikeouts in 13 of his last 18. This includes four straight road starts.
The Blue Jays don't strike out a lot from a rate perspective, but they've sneakily been swinging and missing. The Jays have allowed five of the last seven starting pitchers they've faced to go over their listed strikeout total.
Quantrill's K/9 is way down, and he hasn't even managed six K/9 yet this season. But he's been pitching a massive amount of innings, having pitched at least six in 14 of his last 21 starts. The Guardians need an innings eater behind Shane Bieber, and Quantrill has answered the call.
Quantrill may not force whiffs like other starting pitchers, but he's managed enough opportunities to eclipse his generally low strikeout totals.
The projections are high on Quantrill today, too. Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Quantrill for 4.2 strikeouts today. FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark him for 3.7.
But we can bet this over at even money on DraftKings.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (+100)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Ranger Suarez over 3.5 strikeouts (-165)
| Phillies @ Mets | |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Ranger Suarez is not having the year he did in 2021, but he's been rather effective in the middle of this Philly rotation. His ERA, xERA, FIP and xFIP all range between 3.68 and 3.89, and he's managed just over 100 innings in 19 starts. It's also nice that the Phillies can pair a southpaw with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.
A line of 3.5 strikeouts is too low. He's struck out at least four batters in eight of his nine starts this season. His pitch count hasn't even been spectacular, either, with Suarez having tossed less than 95 pitches in seven of those nine outings.
The Mets are a tough cookie to crack, as they're one of the more disciplined lineups in baseball. But in a relief appearance last season, Suarez managed to strike out three Mets over just 26 pitches in 1 2/3 innings. He forced a 42% CSW rate in the outing.
Suarez has the ability to punch out these Mets, and he should easily catch four strikeouts or more today.
The projection systems agree. Our Action Labs projections have Suarez at 4.9 strikeouts today, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark him for 4.3.
Either way, there's plenty of value in this line.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-165)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
