Giants vs Athletics Odds, Pick | MLB Predictions
Photo by Gene Wang/Getty Images. Pictured: Robbie Ray
Giants vs. Athletics Odds, Pick
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -144 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +154 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -184 |
Robbie Ray looked sharp in his first start since returning from the Injured List. The veteran left-hander didn't allow a hit in his first start against the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, he struggled with finding the strike zone — a ghost of his past that hasn't escaped him yet. His opponent will be the red-hot Oakland A’s on Tuesday.
The A’s will throw JP Sears, who won't walk many batters, but doesn't do much else which is impressive. He doesn't strike anyone out and doesn't limit hard contact, so since the San Francisco Giants have hit lefties well, they should put up some runs.
This total would justify a pitcher’s duel, which doesn't look like it'll happen.
Oakland Athletics
Sears is not a very good starting pitcher. The lefty averages 89.7 MPH off the bat with a below average Hard-Hit Rate. His Barrel Rate is atrocious and his strikeout rate ranks in the 14th percentile. While he limits walks to 6.6%, he doesn't keep the ball on the ground much while allowing the hard contact, so his ERA is 4.81 against a 4.71 xERA.
The A’s have been scorching lefties, though. They have a 154 wRC+ with an 11.4% walk rate and 23.3% strikeout rate in the last month. They have eight bats above a .320 xwOBA with another right under that mark. Lawrence Butler, in particular, has been crushing lefties, with a .544 xwOBA with those parameters in place, so he could get to Ray. Since the A’s have also been patient against southpaws, Ray could see his pitch count quickly accrue.
The Oakland relief staff took a hit when Mason Miller hit the IL with a broken finger. They have a combined 4.15 xFIP with a 9.5% walk rate and strikeout rate just above 23%. They do have a few options below a 4.00 xFIP, but Sears could see an early exit that could make these arms obsolete.
San Francisco Giants
Ray has been great in the past, but has always struggled with control. He has a walk rate of 10% on his career, and hasn't allowed much hard contact in his one start this year, but he average 89.8 MPH over his career, which isn't good. He usually keeps the ball on the ground, and even though he can miss bats too, he could have trouble with a lineup that can work the count and find a way on base.
The Giants also are crushing lefties, so Sears may have a tough day at the office. The Giants own a 143 wRC+, 9% walk rate, and 31.3% strikeout rate against lefties in the last month. They have six active players above a .320 xwOBA against lefties. Heliot Ramos has a thumb injury, so he is questionable, but otherwise, this lineup will be powerful against Sears, since he does not miss many bats, anyways.
In relief, the Giants have been solid in the last month with a 3.57 xFIP and sub-7% walk rate. They have several arms under the 4.00 mark, but if Ray doesn't find the strike zone, the Giants could be in dire straits.
Giants vs. Athletics
Betting Pick & Prediction
Look for the over to hit in this game, even though San Francisco isn't a hitter-friendly park. Both of these starters have their issues, and each lineup has hammered lefties.
Bet this over from 7.5 to 8 because a decent Giants’ bullpen is the only thing that could stop this from being higher scoring.
Pick: Over 7.5, play to 8 (-115) |
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