Giants vs Braves Odds & Tuesday Betting Prediction
| San Francisco Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 8 -115o / -105u | +170 |
| Atlanta Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 8 -115o / -105u | -205 |
Let's dive into Tuesday MLB odds and get into our Giants vs Braves prediction in our Tuesday MLB betting preview for July 2.
Giants vs Braves odds have the Braves as -205 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8 (-115o / -105u) for the Tuesday series opener at Truist Park. For my Giants vs Braves prediction, I'll be looking at the moneyline.
Right-hander Hayden Birdsong takes the mound for San Francisco, while Atlanta hands the ball to right-hander Reynaldo López.
The Braves (46-36) currently hold possession of the first NL wild-card spot while the Giants (41-44) are three games out of the third wild card.
See how I think Giants vs Braves will play out in my MLB betting preview below.
San Francisco Giants
Birdsong is a rookie hurler who will be making just his second professional start. His first outing did not go as planned, given that the right-hander posted a 5.79 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in that game.
However, I am optimistic for a bounce-back performance. First, he posted a .200 xBA in that performance, a tremendous number that was not realized because the ground balls he allowed were all getting through the defense. Birdsong posted a 57.1% ground-ball rate. With those two numbers, it is highly unlikely he posts a 5.79 ERA and 1.93 WHIP if that game is simulated hundreds of times.
Second, anyone can be shaky with the pressures of their MLB debut. We know the potential is there since Birdsong posted a 5-2 record with a 2.51 ERA and 1.17 WHIP across 13 minor league starts in 2024.
Speaking of positive regression, San Francisco's bullpen is also due for it. Despite this relief staff ranking 24th in ERA, it ranks 13th in FIP and third in xFIP.
This pitching staff should also receive plenty of run support. The Giants rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP and OPS.
That success at the dish is likely to continue against López, a pitcher whom this lineup boasts a ridiculous .450 BA, .800 SLG and .536 wOBA against through 49 combined career plate appearances.
Atlanta Braves
This matchup should create the "perfect storm" for López's long-awaited expected regression. He is 6-2 through 14 starts this season with a 1.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.
While outstanding, those numbers are unsustainable based on his analytics. Lopez owns a 3.98 xERA and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, Atlanta's bullpen falls short of San Francisco's in xFIP.
The Braves also fail to reach the Giants in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA and OBP. It won't help their cause that they now go against a pitcher that they have never seen before and that there is relatively little film on at the major league level.
Giants vs. Braves
Betting Pick & Prediction
Birdsong's expected positive regression should gel nicely with López's expected regression, which bodes well for taking a flier on the underdog at +164 via FanDuel. That line is particularly good as it pays out 4-to-10 cents more than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
I also trust San Francisco's bullpen more than Atlanta's, primarily due to its stronger xFIP rating, which I believe is the best single indicator of a bullpen's ability. That just leaves the hitting, which is a wash.
The Giants are the better hitting team overall, but the Braves hit for more power. With that said, a harder hitting team typically also swings-and-misses more, which is true with Atlanta, which ranks 23rd in the league in strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitching.
That is good news for Birdsong, who created nine swings-and-misses while amassing five strikeouts in just 4.2 innings of work in his debut.
Pick: Giants ML (+168 at FanDuel | Play to +155)
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