Giants vs Cubs Odds, Prediction | A Surprising Over/Under Bet
Credit: Getty Images. Pictured: Logan Webb.
Giants vs Cubs Odds, Prediction
| San Francisco Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-115 | 9.5 +100o / -120u | -1.5 +140 |
| Chicago Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-105 | 9.5 +100o / -120u | +1.5 -165 |
The Giants and Cubs will face off in the second game of a three-game set on Tuesday at Wrigley Field. The Giants came away with a 7-6 victory on Monday following a three-run, ninth-inning comeback.
This is an important series for both squads as they battle it out in the NL Wild Card race. The Cubs (34-39) are two games out of a Wild Card spot and 8 1/2 games back of the division-leading Brewers. San Francisco (36-37) sits in second place in the NL West and holding on to the final Wild Card spot.
Giants vs Cubs odds have the Giants installed as -115 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 9.5 (+100o /-120u). I'll be targeting a different market for my Giants vs Cubs prediction: the first five innings (F5) total.
San Francisco Giants
Logan Webb has once again been a reliable starter for the Giants. He has a 3.02 ERA this season, but his 4.68 xERA is concerning. He does have a 2.74 FIP and 3.33 SIERA, so his xERA may be an outlier among potential indicators.
One reason for this divergence is that Webb has a 6.9% HR/FB rate. His career rate is 11.6% and his previous career low is 8.3%, so there's a chance that this regresses back towards the mean over the course of the season.
Among 75 qualified pitchers, Webb ranks ninth in Stuff+ (113), 24th in Location+, and ninth in Pitching+. Despite great stuff, Webb only has 78 strikeouts in 92 1/3 innings, ranking in the ninth percentile in whiff rate and 39th percentile in strikeout rate.
Webb is a ground-ball pitcher, ranking in the 94th percentile in ground-ball rate. He also has elite command, walking just 5.3% of his batters faced (85th percentile).
While most of these are ground balls, Webb has still been hit hard. He ranks in the fifth percentile in exit velocity allowed, first percentile in hard hit rate allowed, and 31st percentile in barrel rate allowed.
The San Francisco offense ranks 12th in wRC+ and 15th in wOBA this season. The Giants rank 21st in ISO and 17th in SLG but have the ninth-best walk rate and 10th-best strikeout rate.
They have been better on the road, given Oracle is a pitcher's park. Among MLB lineups on the road, the Giants rank seventh in wOBA, wRC+, SLG, ISO, and OBP this season.
They've crushed lefties. The Giants rank fourth in wRC+ and fifth in wOBA against southpaws.
Chicago Cubs
Justin Steele gets the nod for the Cubs tonight. The 28-year-old lefty started the season with an injury, missing all of April, and started the year slower than usual.
However, Steele has been able to turn his fortunes around, allowing one run or less in four consecutive starts.
Steele has a 3.22 ERA with a 3.14 xERA and 3.74 SIERA. A large part of his success has come from limiting quality contact, ranking in the 86th percentile in barrel rate allowed, 75th percentile in average exit velocity allowed, and 63rd percentile in hard hit rate allowed.
Among 132 pitchers with 50-plus innings, Steele ranks 41st in Stuff+ (101), 47th in Location+, and 45th in Pitching+. He's performing like an above-average pitcher, which tracks over the past few seasons.
Chicago’s offense started the season hot but has struggled over the last month and a half. They now rank 21st in wRC+ and 20th in wOBA. The Cubs also rank 25th in SLG and 17th in OBP. They have the fifth-highest walk rate but the 11th-highest strikeout rate.
The Cubs’ offensive performance has been largely backed up by their batted ball metrics. They rank 20th in hard hit rate, 12th in barrel rate, and 19th in exit velocity. They do have the 11th-lowest ground ball rate in the league at 41.6%, which may prove to be key against the ground-ball-heavy Logan Webb.
Giants vs. Cubs
Betting Pick & Prediction
Steele has pitched well once again this season, and his underlying metrics back up this performance. But the matchup against the Giants may be tough, as they have an above-average offense that is better on the road and against lefties.
Webb’s performance to date is highly confusing to me. He has great stuff but can’t get anyone to whiff or strike out. He gets hit extremely hard, but these balls have mostly been on the ground, limiting damage. The Cubs’ offense has been worse than average, but they are definitely still capable of scoring on Webb if he doesn’t have his best stuff.
The weather in this matchup looks to favor the offense. The forecast calls for mid-80s temps and 18 mph winds blowing out toward left center.
Despite having two solid pitchers on the mound, I like the first half over.
There is definitely downside potential as either starter is capable of turning in a shutout, but they have both outperformed their peripheral numbers to an extent and I think this total doesn’t quite reflect this.
These two squads combined for 13 total runs a night ago and I think that we could see a higher-than-expect offensive output here as well.
Pick: F5 Over 4.5 (-120, FanDuel) | Play to 4.5 (-130)
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