A massive game beckons on Tuesday night when the Arizona Diamondbacks look to remain in playoff position when they take on the San Francisco Giants just a night after dropping their second straight game.
Arizona remains 1 1/2 games clear of the Atlanta Braves as we move forward in the final week of the season, and a win against Logan Webb and the visiting Giants could go a long way towards hanging on to the final wild-card spot in the National League given the run both the Braves and New York Mets — now a half-game ahead of the Diamondbacks — are on.
Let's get cooking with my Tuesday night Giants vs Diamondbacks parlay, which features three picks for Logan Webb, Eugenio Suarez and Brandon Pfaadt.
Kenny Ducey's Giants vs Diamondbacks MLB Parlay Picks
- Logan Webb Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-110)
- Eugenio Suarez 2+ Total Bases (+135)
- Brandon Pfaadt 7+ Strikeouts (-115)
Parlay Odds: +525 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Logan Webb Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-110)
Giants vs. Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET
I tried to tell you guys back in March that this could be a weird season for veteran Logan Webb. After taking a slight step back from his excellent 2022 campaign last season, he posted an ERA over 10 in spring training and continued to see some regression this season with a bloated .276 Expected Batting Average (xBA), which is unbecoming of the expert contact-oriented pitcher.
Webb's xBA this month sits at .288, and he's now yielded 29 hits in 21 frames across four outings. He rebounded with five acceptable frames against the slumping Baltimore Orioles last time out, allowing just four hits, but he did surrender three or more runs for a fifth straight game and has walked eight batters over those outings.
That leaves us with an interesting decision. Do we roll the dice and back Webb's command issues to continue coming into question? Do we bet on more hits or are we perhaps tempted to bet on his earned runs here?
Well, the best way to go seems to be on Webb's earned run total. Arizona's coupled a low 21.3% strikeout rate in the last two weeks with a beefy .224 Isolated Power (ISO), doing a ton of damage on contact and hitting .279 along the way.
We'd have to pony up to pay -170 on over 5.5 hits here, and with a 5.4% walk rate this month, it still doesn't seem like the best idea to back him to issue two free passes.
I have full faith in Arizona continuing to do damage given the friendly matchup with an opponent who will pitch to contact, and has done so incredibly poorly all year. Webb owns a concerning .428 Expected Slugging (xSLG) this month, too, with a 46.4% hard-hit rate so it may not take many hits to get us home.
Back him to hit the over here for a sixth consecutive start.
Eugenio Suarez 2+ Total Bases (+135)
Giants vs. Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET
As a guy who's had an excellent career, Webb owns solid expected marks marks against the entire Diamondbacks offense over the years. One man who's gotten to him is Eugenio Suarez, however, going 3-for-10 off Webb in his career with a .354 xBA and .397 xSLG in those plate appearances.
Suarez leads the Diamondbacks with 45 total bases against ground-ball pitchers this year, and while he's hit just .202, I'm looking for someone who will hit for power and exploit the weaknesses present with Webb.
The veteran has begun to heat up of late, snapping a six-game hitting streak in Monday's loss but still sporting a .267 average over his last seven. Now that he's seeing the ball a bit better once again, I think he's primed for a long-awaited monster night in a big game for Arizona.
Suarez has been victimized by strikeouts all year, but this recent stretch of seven games has been particularly brutal as he's punched out 12 times in 30 at-bats. Webb's not going to strike many out here, declining once again that area, and that should present a friendlier matchup for Suarez.
Corbin Carroll may be worth a shout here, but his price isn't as great and I think you're also relying on him to rack up multiple hits.
Brandon Pfaadt 7+ Strikeouts (-115)
Giants vs. Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET
We haven't talked about Brandon Pfaadt yet, and that's probably a good thing. The right-hander owns a brutal 7.58 ERA this month after a 6.04 ERA in August, reverting back to the 1.0 version of Pfaadt we saw early in his roller-coaster rookie year in 2023.
The thing is, though, that Pfaadt's biggest issue has been hunting strikeouts. He's been prone to walks and home runs, allowing a ton of baserunners and a home run in seven of his last eight, but he's fresh off a 12-strikeout performance against the Brewers and has now racked up 27 in just 19 frames this month.
San Francisco has had serious issues making contact at times this year, but as it's officially fallen out of the race it's posted a brutal 27.1% strikeout rate in the past two weeks to just a 6.1% walk rate and .217 average.
Pfaadt should be able to stick around in this one long enough to cash this leg as a result, and with the blistering pace in which he's generating third strikes, I think this one's an easy call.
His numbers this month would look even better if he hadn't faced arguably the best team in the league at limiting strikeouts in the Houston Astros and made it out of the second inning of his start on Sept. 14 against the Brewers, when he surrendered eight runs.
The Giants aren't scary enough to stop betting on Pfaadt's strikeouts now.
