Giants vs Dodgers Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+152 | 9 -104 / -118 | +1.5 -126 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-180 | 9 -104 / -118 | -1.5 +105 |
Counting a 7-2 loss in the series opener, San Francisco has now dropped 12 of its last 13 contests on the road, which has tanked their playoff hopes to just 1% per FanGraphs. Sean Manaea will start for the Giants (4.82 ERA, 104 and 2/3 IP), while the Dodgers will open with Caleb Ferguson (2.56 ERA, 56 and 1/3 IP), who will likely lead into Ryan Yarbrough.
San Francisco Giants
A start for Manaea at Dodger Stadium may not be the most favorable way to swing around a stretch of horrific results on the road for the Giants. Manaea has pitched to a 9.00 ERA versus the Dodgers in his career and a 9.78 ERA at Dodger Stadium. He has allowed an ERA of 6.12 on the road since the start of last season, which is the fifth-highest mark in the league among starters to have thrown over 125 innings.
In his last 47 and 1/3 innings, Manaea has pitched to an ERA of 3.99 with a WHIP of 1.25. Those marks are drastically better than his season long numbers, yet the underlying process remains modest. His per game xFIP has averaged 4.08 over the last five, while his xwoba has actually climbed to .342.
Manaea owns a Stuff+ mark of 92 this season and a Location+ mark of 101.
He has an OPS of .876 when facing a lineup for the third time this season. Manaea has been given a longer leash in the last two outings, which has worked on paper with just three earned runs. The Giants' bullpen owns an ERA of 4.85 over the last 30 days, and it has worked the 12th-most innings in the league over that span.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers' 51-27 record at Dodger Stadium has come with some dominant offensive play. Particularly relative to where their opponents have been at in pitcher friendly conditions. They have put up 5.36 runs per game this season and own a wRC+ of 120.
Over the last 30 days they have hit to a 127 wRC+ and own a 0.49 BB/K ratio.
Barring any unforeseen absences from the lineup, the Dodgers should be able to field what has essentially been their "A" lineup versus left-handed pitchers in this spot. With that said, be mindful of the fact that they are at a liberty of managing usage heavily down the stretch with so little left to play for.
Giants vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
I'm not buying a sustained turnaround from Manaea, and he remains a great target for the Dodgers to continue their dominant offensive play. Much of their lineup has seen him often and has hit to strong results. That seems likely to continue in this matchup.
It is logical for the Giants to try and allow Manaea to follow up his improved results in this matchup. A potentially long leash sets up well for a bet on the Dodgers to record over 2.5 ER off of him, as we obviously want him to be forced to get through as many innings as possible without faltering to remain under that mark.
