The Dodgers came out of the All-Star break hot with a sweep of the Red Sox, rallying for victories on Friday and Saturday before hitting six home runs on Sunday Night Baseball. Tonight, Los Angeles continues its homestand against the rival Giants.
The Giants dropped two of three in Colorado over the weekend but will hand Blake Snell the ball tonight. Since returning from the injured list this month, he has looked like the pitcher who the Giants expected when they signed him. However, the Dodgers, particularly the top half of their lineup, will be excited to face the lefty.
Here's how I'm backing the Dodgers in this three-leg same-game parlay.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Giants vs Dodgers Parlay: MLB SGP Picks (July 22, Monday)
- Shohei Ohtani 2+ Alternate Total Bases (+140)
- Will Smith To Record A Hit (-195)
- Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Parlay Odds: +625 (DraftKings)
Shohei Ohtani 2+ Alternate Total Bases (+140)
Red Sox vs. Dodgers | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Tonight, Ohtani's total bases prop is 0.5 with the over priced at -180 on DraftKings. That's a line that I find very interesting, considering he's had at least a single in nine of his last 10 games. A prop that's priced -180 with a 90% hit rate is a great parlay piece but also may be selling Ohtani short tonight.
Ohtani has recorded two total bases in six straight and seven of his last eight games. In that span, he's hitting .312 with two home runs and five runs batted in. His home run last night traveled 473 feet and was the ninth home run of 440 feet or longer he has hit this season.
Now, Ohtani faces a left-hander pitcher tonight, but he's hitting .304 with seven home runs, 20 RBIs and a .869 OPS against lefties this season. He is also 2-for-4 with a double against Snell, who typically does not pitch longer than six innings and has thrown 73 and 80 pitches in his first two starts off the injured list.
Considering these factors, I believe Ohtani is mispriced for two total bases tonight, but I'll take the +140 to boost the odds for this parlay.
Will Smith To Record A Hit (-195)
Red Sox vs. Dodgers | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Smith got the night off on Sunday but will likely be back in the Dodgers' lineup tonight batting second once again. He has a hit in each of his last four games and seven of his last 10 games. He also has a hit in 24 of his last 33 games against the Giants.
Since 2019, Smith is 7-for-21 (.333) against Snell and three of the seven hits have gone for extra bases with a double and two home runs. Taking Smith for two total bases, as well, increases the odds to +900 for this parlay. However, he has only singled in three of his past four games.
Smith is also hitting .321 against left-handed pitching this season. Hitting in between Ohtani and Freeman increases the likelihood that he will see another left-handed reliever once Snell is out of the game.
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Red Sox vs. Dodgers | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
After the Red Sox scored two runs on a Jarren Duran home run in the first inning, Freeman got the Dodgers' offense going with a solo home run in the bottom half of Sunday night's Dodgers win. It was Freeman's 16th of the year and third in his last five games, and he now has registered two total bases in four of his last five games.
Freeman may homer again tonight and he certainly has plenty of power with 337 career home runs. However, when I back him for two bases, I am typically expecting him to hit a double. Over the last two and a half years, Freeman has 131 doubles, including four against the Giants this season. Since 2019, he is 6-for-20 (.300) with two doubles off Snell.
Freeman is also two doubles shy from 500 for his career and will join an exclusive list of players with 500 doubles and 300 home runs. That may come later in the series, but one two-bagger from him tonight gives us two total bases and hopefully cashes the last leg of this parlay.
