Giants vs. Mets Odds
| Giants Odds (Game 1) | +100 |
| Mets Odds (Game 1) | -120 |
| Over/Under | 7 (-120 / +100) |
| Time | 3:10 p.m. ET |
| Giants Odds (Game 2) | +100 |
| Mets Odds (Game 2) | -120 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 (-120 / +100) |
| Time | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
Thirteen days into the 2022 season and we finally have our first doubleheader of the season. After a rainy Monday in Queens, the Giants and Mets will play a pair of games beginning at 3:10 PM. (Just a reminder, doubleheaders are back to the traditional nine-inning games this year.)
Currently these are two of the top three teams in baseball — San Francisco is off to a 7-2 start and has won five straight and New York has started the year 7-3.
The Giants went 5-1 against the Mets last season, including a three-game sweep in at Citi Field. However, New York reloaded this offseason and has a lot of new faces, including a three-time Cy Young Award winner who will take the mound on Tuesday.
With two games to choose from, is there more value in Game 1, Game 2, or do we just bet them both?
Giants Dominate Right-Handed Pitching
In Game 1, the Giants will roll out righty Alex Cobb and the story for Cobb this year has been his increased velocity. After averaging 92 miles per hour in his career, Cobb has upped his average to 94.5 mph this season.
He cleaned up his delivery this offseason and in his first start as a Giant, allowed two runs while striking out 10 batters in a win against the Padres. Cobb has a devastating splitter that he combines with his primary sinker.
Opening Day starter Logan Webb, also a righty, will get the ball for Game 2 and has developed into a bona fide ace. He went 11-3 last season with a 3.03 ERA and didn’t suffer a loss in his final 22 starts.
He became a household name in the playoffs with back-to-back gems against the Dodgers, allowing just one run while striking out 17 in 14 2/3 innings in his two starts in the ALDS. He picked up right where he left off, as the Giants are 2-0 in his starts this year and he has a 1.29 ERA with 10 strikeouts.
The Giants' offense has been abysmal against left-handed pitchers this year (28th in wOBA and wRC+ against lefties), but they have crushed right-handers and have the fifth-best wOBA and wRC+ against righties, like the two they will face on Tuesday.
Brandon Belt is still getting it done in his 12th year, currently batting .345 with a 1.131 OPS. Since the start of 2020, Belt has a .600 slugging percentage, the best mark among all players with at least 500 plate appearances. He ranks just ahead of guys like Ronald Acuna Jr, Bryce Harper and Juan Soto.
Mets Offense Is Humming Early
The Mets will start Tylor Megill (RHP) in Game 1 and he got the Opening Day by default because of the Mets early season injuries. Well, he has certainly made the most of it. Through two starts, he is 2-0 and has allowed exactly zero runs while striking out 11. Like Cobb, he has also upped his velocity.
After averaging 94.6 mph last season, he is up to a 96.4 average this year and has touched 99 at times. His spin rate is also way up and his reworked mechanics — as well as ditching the windup and only pitching from the stretch — have really paid off early.
Game 2 will mark the home debut for Max Scherzer. In a pair of road starts, Scherzer is 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA, allowing four runs in 11 innings while striking out 13. Not to overreact to two games for one of the best pitchers of our generation, but Scherzer’s 10.64 K/9 rate would be his lowest mark since 2014. He allowed a .281 wOBA and .364 xwOBA and his 19.2% barrel rate is more than triple his career average
The Mets made some big moves this offseason and it has given their offense the juice it needed after struggling last season. New York sits fourth in the league in wOBA and third in wRC+ early this year. They have averaged 6.1 runs per game in their wins this season.
Newcomer Starling Marte is off to a great start and Francisco Lindor appears to be on his way to a bounce back season. 2019 Rookie of the Year Pete Alonso has three home runs and is second in the league with 14 RBIs this season.
New York will be without Brandon Nimmo and Mark Canha however, after they were placed on the COVID-19 list following a coach testing positive.
Giants-Mets Pick
These two teams are tied with a .356 wOBA against right-handed pitching and sit third and fifth in wRC+ so these offenses appear to be on equal footing with righties going for both teams.
I am drinking all the Tylor Megill Kool-Aid. Is he the ace of this rotation? Okay, maybe that is an overreaction, but the 6-foot-7, 230 pound flame thrower is an intimidating presence and has looked dominant.
He simplified his delivery and has two of the best pitchers in the game to learn from. He keeps the ball in the yard, doesn’t surrender walks, and has allowed just six total hits through two starts.
I’ll give New York the pitching edge in Game 1 with Megill and back them at -125 or better.
In Game 2, I’ll switch my pick to Webb and the Giants. Webb hasn’t taken a loss since May 5, 2021. Since the date he has a 2.28 ERA and 2.62 xFIP, the best of any pitcher in the league over that stretch.
Scherzer is 37-years-old and has already dealt with arm soreness and a hamstring injury this spring. While I don’t expect his production to fall off a cliff or anything, that 19.2% barrel rate is the highest in the league among qualified pitchers and giving me pause.
Webb is putting himself in the conversation for one of the best pitchers in baseball and I'll back him and San Francisco in Game 2 at -110 or better.
Pick: Game 1: Mets ML (-120) | Game 2: Giants ML (+100)
