The San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds battle on Saturday at Great American Ball Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FanDuel Sports Ohio.
For this same-game parlay, I’m going to fade one starting pitcher and back the other, which will naturally create a good opportunity to back a side.
Find my Giants vs Reds parlay picks for Saturday, March 29, below.
Giants vs Reds MLB Parlay — 3/29
- Justin Verlander Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)
- Nick Lodolo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
- Reds moneyline (-124)
Parlay Odds: +420 (Fanatics)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Justin Verlander Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Right-hander Justin Verlander makes his first start of the season for the San Francisco Giants. There are a few reasons to fade the future Hall of Famer in this matchup.
First, the 42-year-old is starting to regress rapidly. Through 17 starts last season, Verlander posted a 5-6 record with a 5.48 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.
Along with this regression has come difficulties in striking out opposing batters. In 2024, Verlander ranked in the 30th percentile in chase rate, the 15th percentile in whiff rate, and the 17th percentile in strikeout rate.
Additionally, due to his age, Verlander will be kept on a short leash for his first few starts of the season. His arm can’t handle the workload it once did, so the Giants will surely ease him into the campaign.
Nick Lodolo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
On the other hand, southpaw Nick Lodolo takes the mound for the Cincinnati Reds. Lodolo underwent a turbulent campaign in 2024, but his underlying metrics suggest that we should see a strong upcoming year from the former seventh overall pick.
He finished last season ranked in the 60th percentile in xERA and the 67th percentile in xBA. Lodolo also ranked in the 64th percentile or higher in chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate, which is why we’re going to target him in the strikeout market on Saturday.
His strikeout prop is currently set at 5.5, a total Lodolo has surpassed in 14 of his past 24 starts. One of those outings came against San Francisco, a game in which Lodolo finished with six strikeouts.
Reds Moneyline (-125)
If we’re fading Verlander while simultaneously backing Lodolo, then a highly correlated outcome would be for Cincinnati to win this game. Besides the pitching matchup, there are a few other reasons to back the Reds on Saturday.
First, this current Giants lineup has struggled against Lodolo. Through 31 combined plate appearances against the left-hander, San Francisco possesses a mere .150 xBA, .279 xSLG, and .218 xwOBA.
Second, Cincinnati’s bullpen likely has the higher upside. Last season, the Reds’ relief staff ranked eighth in WAR, while the Giants’ bullpen ranked 21st.
