The Guardians have finally usurped the Twins and White Sox as the favorite for the American League Central crown for the first time all season.
The upstart Twins had been around +600 to win the AL Central before the season started, with the White Sox in -200 territory (66.67% implied odds) to win back-to-back division titles.
Meanwhile, the Guardians were as long as +1500 (6.25% implied) during spring training.
Then, the Twins started off hot, holding onto the division lead until August and even being the sole recipient of MLB's biggest division lead in May.
Yet, the Twins hovered around plus-money all year, with the market unconvinced regarding the White Sox's slow start. Chicago was minus-money, hovering around -115, to win the division until summer started.
Minnesota finally usurped the Chicago in June to take the lead as the favorite.
But the Guardians stayed in the race throughout, stalking the leaders within four games throughout the dog days of summer, but the markets didn't start respecting them until just about that timeframe. Even then, they were closer to +175 to take the crown, despite being in a tight race in a bad division.
Now, after a season long resurgence — and the staid, explosive play of perhaps the most underrated superstar in MLB, Jose Ramirez — the Guardians are in poll position for a playoff spot come October.
The Guardians are now +120 at BetMGM to win the division.
Prognosticators across the league thought Chicago would run through what they perceived to be a weak division. The White Sox had been -400 to make the playoffs and tied as the fourth-best favorites to win the World Series.
Their odds to miss the playoffs were at +300 (implied odds of 35%) before the season, and that's going to be a winning ticket unless they win their division.
The White Sox are +250 to win the AL Central and are 3.5 games out of contention.
The Twins, meanwhile, have fallen to +180 underdogs with 52 games to go. The Twins are 1.5 games back from the Guardians atop the division.
