Guardians vs Phillies Picks | MLB Odds & Prediction Today
Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Ben Lively
Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 8 -115o / -105u | +158 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 8 -115o / -105u | -190 |
Ben Lively has had a bit of a resurgence for the Cleveland Guardians this year and has remained in the rotation because of his exceptional production. While he gives up hard contact, he doesn't walk many batters.
He will be throwing against the Philadelphia Phillies, who haven't been too strong against right-handed pitching in the last month. Cristopher Sánchez takes the mound for Philly, and he can keep the ball on the ground while also limiting walks and hard contact. However, Lively and Sánchez carry similar xERAs, so since the Guardians have been decent against lefties, like Sánchez, Cleveland holds value in this matchup.
Cleveland Guardians
Lively has a 3.57 ERA against a 3.65 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is over 91 MPH with a below average Hard-Hit Rate. He only walks 7.1% of hitters, and has only had two starts this year, where he has allowed more than three earned runs. He won't blow anyone away, but he's serviceable, and that is all the Guardians need in this one.
Cleveland has a 109 wRC+ in the last month against lefties. It has a 10.5% walk rate and 23.8% strikeout rate. Sánchez won't walk many, but it doesn't hurt. Cleveland has seven bats above a .320 xwOBA in the last month off southpaws, so as much as it hasn't hit righties well, this lineup should show off some depth against Sánchez.
The Guards have a 3.63 xFIP in the last month with an 8.7% walk rate and strikeout rate above 26% in relief. They have five arms under a 4.00 xFIP, so even if Lively has some troubles, Cleveland has the depth they need in the bullpen, as well.
Philadelphia Phillies
Sánchez has had a great season, adding to a loaded Philly rotation. Although he sports a sub-3.00 ERA, his xERA is 3.60, due to his lack of strikeouts, similar to Lively.
Sánchez’s ground-ball rate is elite, and he ranks in the top-half of the league in Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate, so even when he is keeping the ball on the ground, he's not risking many base hits. His walk rate is also above average, but Lively should be able to hold his own with how the Phillies have hit righties lately.
The Phils have a 97 wRC+ off of northpaws since June 26. They also have a 7.1% walk rate and 25.1% strikeout rate, so they could end up walking less and striking out more against Lively. They have only two hitters above a .320 xwOBA, so as a whole, the Phils are scuffling at the dish against righties.
In relief, the Phillies have been decent. Their bullpen owns a 3.70 xFIP with an 8.9% walk rate and strikeout rate over 27%. They have seven of nine pitchers under the 4.00 xFIP threshold, so they have more reliable options in the bullpen than Cleveland does. That said, since these bullpens shouldn't see as much action with two starters who don't walk many hitters, relievers could be less of a factor.
Guardians vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
Even though they're on the road and struggling against righties, the Guardians can hit lefties like Sánchez. Lively has been sharp enough for them this year to prove they have value on the moneyline, even on the road.
Philly has some powerful bats at the top, who are just not up to par for the moment off of righties, so this is the perfect time for Cleveland to strike. Bet them from +145 to +115.
Pick: Cleveland Guardians +145 to +115 via DraftKings
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