Guardians vs. Reds Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-118 | 9.5 +100 / -122 | -1.5 +140 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+100 | 9.5 +100 / -122 | +1.5 -170 |
The Cincinnati Reds entered Tuesday one game back of the Miami Marlins for the third NL Wild Card slot and 3 1/2 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the NL Central lead. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians trail the first-place Minnesota Twins by 4 1/2 games in the AL Central.
Graham Ashcraft, who's been phenomenal since the All-Star Break, gets the start for Cincy on Tuesday. He's been inducing weak contact, which has helped him lower his ERA and WHIP.
Starting for the Guardians is Logan Allen — he's more or less matched his performance from the first half since the break.
Both teams have struggled immensely on offense but have a few reliable arms in relief, so taking the under could be a wise play.
Cleveland Guardians
Logan Allen has a 3.55 ERA against a 4.47 xERA, so some regression is in the cards.
This is likely because his Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate rank in the bottom 50% of the league. His strikeout and walk rates rank in the 42nd percentile, so expected stats indicate he's been a slightly below average pitcher this season. He still has been pretty consistent with a 3.72 ERA in the second half after posting a 3.47 ERA in the first. He has only allowed three earned runs over two starts in August.
The Guardians are around league average with a 101 wRC+ and .729 OPS off righties (in August). However, they only have four active bats with at least a .320 xwOBA — basically only the top of their lineup can hit. Josh Naylor and David Fry being sidelined has hindered this team’s ability to remain competitive.
Cleveland has several reliable arms in relief. Its 'pen has a 2.88 xFIP over 36 innings pitched this month, which is the best in MLB. The Guardians' walk rate is under 7% with a strikeout rate hovering around 29%. They are doing so with a LOB percentage below 70%, so this is pretty impressive.
Cincinnati Reds
Ashcraft has been great in the second half, boasting a 2.11 ERA over 38 1/3 innings. Over that span, his strikeout rate is 18.4% against a 7.5% walk rate.
He is allowing an OBP of only .286 with an xwOBA of .308, so his xERA (5.08) and ERA (4.95) on the season don't tell the entire story.
Graham Ashcraft's 6th and 7th Ks. pic.twitter.com/vSUeAR3nS5
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 9, 2023
On offense, the Reds have slipped a bit. They have a wRC+ of only 80 and OPS of .711 — with a 5.8% strikeout rate — off southpaws in August.
Injuries to Curt Casali, Jonathan India and Jake Fraley don't help matters, at least from a leadership perspective. The Reds also only have four active bats with at least a .320 xwOBA this month off lefties.
Cincy's bullpen, however, has been viable this month despite a collective 9% walk rate. This should help on the back of Ashcraft’s start.
Guardians vs. Reds
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Guardians and Reds are missing key players on offense. Without the likes of Naylor, India, Fry and Fraley, this game could lack firepower. Expect pitching to dominate.
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