Guardians vs. Royals Odds
| Guardians Odds | -115 |
| Royals Odds | -105 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-115/-105) |
| Time | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via DraftKings, updated Monday at 11:30 a.m. ET. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Cleveland produced just a single run in its opening two contests of this series vs. the Royals before managing an offensive explosion in Sunday's 17-3 win.
The Guardians will now look to keep the momentum going and gain the series split, as they send Aaron Civale to the mound to take on Carlos Hernandez.
Can we expect the Guardians to follow up Sunday's outburst with another strong showing against Hernandez?
Spring Struggles Worrisome for Hernandez?
Hernandez will get the start for Kansas City here, as he looks to shake off what was a very unimpressive spring. He'll try to show more of the promising form he offered at times last season.
During a small sample size of 6.4 innings in spring training, Hernandez looked to put more pitches in the zone. While he was likely trying to better a poor 11.5 BB%, he was hit hard often, allowing five home runs and a 14.73 ERA.
Hernandez finished with a favorable 3.68 ERA last season, with an expected ERA of 4.35. Both of those marks were vast improvements from his previous season, when Hernandez posted a 7.30 xERA.
Last season, Hernandez fared far better pitching to left-handed batters, holding them to just a .273 slugging percentage, which was seventh-best among starting pitchers who pitched 80+ innings.
However, this does not set up as a good matchup for that strength to continue. A heavy part of Cleveland's order is right-handed, and 6-of-9 batters expected in the lineup for the Guardians on Monday will bat from the right side.
So far this season, the Royals' lineup has been far from effective, playing to a .220 wOBA over the first three games.
Bobby Witt Jr. is in the mix and looks ready to make a difference, but I project this lineup to be right around 20-to-22 in regards to offensive production this season.
Can Guardians Create Enough Offense?
Civale will take the mound for the Guardians, and it's reasonable to think that a sneakily decent Royals lineup can create problems and put together a solid offensive day.
Civale took a step backwards at 26 last season, pitching to an xERA of 4.79 and a XWOBA of .334. He finished in just the 17th percentile in regards to xSLG.
Monday's expected Royals lineup has certainly slugged well off of Civale. The Royals' projected lineup has altogether hit a .634 slugging percentage in 52 at-bats vs. Civale.
Cleveland will likely need to manage a reasonable offensive output itself Monday, and will look to build on Sunday's massive performance.
The Guardians project to finish around the 18-to-21 range in most offensive categories this season, but don't tell that to rookie outfielder Steven Kwan, who posted a historic 5-for-5 day on Sunday.
Only Franmil Reyes and Jose Ramirez have faced Hernandez before, with Reyes going 2-for-2 and Ramirez drawing a walk in his lone at-bat.
Guardians-Royals Pick
There are some reasonable arguments as to why either of these lineups could put together a strong output off of the opposing starter in this contest. I think it's quite possible we see one or both of Hernandez and Civale unable to manage a quality start in this game.
Neither team projects to have a dominant bullpen this season, so I think there are a few ways the teams can find enough offense to hit the over in this contest.
Even if conditions aren't ideal for a ton of carry on Monday at Kauffman Stadium, I think we should see a lot of contact and another long day for the pitchers involved.
I lean toward Cleveland as a side and feel a little more comfortable that it should be able to generate some runs off of Hernandez, but I see the greatest edge with over 8.5 at -110.
Pick: Over 8.5 -110 (Play 8.5 to -120)
