The Cleveland Guardians took care of business, beating the Detroit Tigers 7-0 in Game 1 on Saturday and will now be looking to build a 2-0 series lead in the ALDS.
It'll be former Detroit Tiger Matthew Boyd on the mound for the Guardians. He has a tall task against Tarik Skubal, who was dominant in six shutout innings against the Astros in the Wild Card series — he'll need a big performance to give his club a lift today.
We fell two strikeouts short of hitting our SGP in Padres vs Dodgers Game 2, so let's try to rebound with my Guardians vs Tigers parlay for ALDS Game 2.
Guardians vs Tigers Game 2 Parlay Picks
- Matthew Boyd Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-152)
- Tarik Skubal Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-162)
- Under 3.5 First Five Innings (-140)
- Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (+110)
Parlay Odds: +650 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Guardians vs Tigers Parlay Leg 1
Matt Boyd Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-152)
Boyd landed in Cleveland trying to re-vitalize his career, and entered the season on the Injured List. He only pitched 39 innings in 2024, but was effective on the mound.
Boyd had a 2.72 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, far lower than his career average. Boyd had always had strikeout upside in his arsenal, but was consistently plagued by allowing too many walks and hits, which hurt his overall numbers.
Boyd generated roughly a 30% strikeout and whiff rate in limited action. He struck out 46 batters over 39 innings, which is well above average. This afternoon, he draws a matchup against his former team, which was bottom-10 in strikeouts per game.
The Tigers struck out 28% of the time against left-handed pitching, which is no surprise given their left-handed heavy lineup. Boyd has only faced one hitter on the Tigers in the past, so there will be an adjustment period for Detroit’s offense.
I like this matchup for Boyd to clear his strikeout total.
Guardians vs Tigers Parlay Leg 2
Tarik Skubal Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-162)
Skubal is coming off a dominant effort against the Astros, in which he struck out six in a scoreless outing. Skubal faces a familiar foe in the Guardians, who have had mediocre results against him in the past.
The Guardians rarely strike out and have done so only 24% of the time against Skubal in the past. They love to take their hacks and rarely chase.
Skubal is arguably the game's best pitcher right now, but there is a reason his strikeout prop is juiced toward the under. This isn’t as easy a matchup as many may perceive, and I don’t expect him to generate many strikeouts.
That’s not to say Skubal won’t be effective, but I think it’s wise to fade his strikeout prop given the difficult matchup in that department. The Guardians also don’t walk very often, so it's rare that they are in deep counts at the plate.
Guardians vs Tigers Parlay Leg 3
Under 3.5 First Five Innings (-140)
Besides attacking the strikeout props, I think it’s wise to back both of these starting pitchers with an under in the first five innings. We are fading Skubal's strikeouts, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be dominant.
Skubal generates a ton of weak contact and has only allowed a 34% hard-hit rate. In his one start at Progressive Field during the regular season, he was dominant over seven innings, striking out five and allowing just one run.
The Guardian's offense got off to a hot start in Game 1, but now has to face Skubal, who is far more elite than Detroit’s Game 1 starter, Reese Olson. I expect Skubal to carry the load here.
Also, it seems like Detroit’s offense is finally coming back down to earth after a ridiculous month-and-a-half stretch.
The Tigers hit .229 against left-handers during the regular season, so I don’t expect Boyd to encounter many issues. This is typically a lineup that fares much better against righties, but overall they weren’t an elite offensive team during the regular season.
I think casuals will automatically take the over in the first five after Game 1, but with both these starters, I’m very confident that we’ll cash the early under.
Guardians vs Tigers Parlay Leg 4
Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (+110)
The Guardians have a tough matchup against Skubal, but their numbers against him aren’t so bad. They're hitting .279 against him, so there is reason to believe they could score a couple of runs against him later in the outing.
The Guardians’ bullpen is strong, and I give them a massive edge late in the game over the Tigers. When Skubal exits the game, the Guardians should take advantage.
The Tigers’ bullpen pitched well down the stretch, but any pitcher entering the game after Skubal is a downgrade. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Tigers get an early lead, but I expect the Guardians to storm back late in the game and earn themselves a 2-0 series lead.
