There's nothing more intense in sports than a Game 7, but since we're in the best-of-five stage of the MLB playoffs, then a do-or-die Game 5 will suffice.
I put together a Guardians vs Tigers parlay for ALDS Game 5 — find my three picks on this +700 SGP below.
Guardians vs Tigers Parlay Picks for Game 5
- Tigers ML -130
- Jhonkensy Noel u0.5 hit -120
- Steven Kwan 2+ total bases +160
Parlay Odds: +700 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Tigers ML -130
The biggest advantage an MLB team can have in a win-or-go-home game is having the starting pitcher advantage, which the Tigers clearly boast with soon-to-be Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. Skubal had a historically good regular season, posting a 2.39 ERA with 228 strikeouts in 192 innings. He's without question the best pitcher in baseball, so there's nobody Detroit would rather have on the bump than their ace.
Skubal hasn’t dealt with postseason jitters yet, boasting a 13-inning scoreless streak with 14 strikeouts to boot. The Guardians certainly didn’t have an answer against Skubal, as he tossed seven scoreless innings with seven strikeouts in Game 2.
The Tigers' offense hasn’t done anything spectacular in these series, but they don’t need spectacular when Skubal is on the bump. If Detroit gets Matthew Boyd chased from the game quickly, then it’ll put pressure on Cleveland’s bullpen, which’s gotten taxed to the max through four games. Although the Guardians' bullpen arms have been used frequently all year, it’s reasonable to expect some fatigue eventually.
That's less of a concern for Detroit. However, the Tigers bullpen is arguably more taxed, given that skipper AJ Hinch has to go with bullpen games for half the series. He won't have to go to the pen early since Skubal could shorten the bullpen usage to 2 or 3 innings. If Skubal goes six innings, then the trio of Will Vest, Tyler Holton and Beau Breiske can send the Guardians fans home with a loss.
Jhonkensy Noel u0.5 Hits (-120)
No Guardians hitter fared well against Skubal. I don’t count that as a huge knock against anybody since Skubal is as dominant as he is, but we could find a safe parlay leg by fading the coldest hitter in Cleveland’s lineup, Jhonkensy Noel.
The man nicknamed “Big Christmas” is about as cold as the weather on Christmas in Cleveland. Noel is plenty capable of turning a game on its head with one lethal swing, but he's an all-or-nothing hitter. So far in the ALDS, it's been nothing, as he's 0-9. Also, he finished the regular season on a 4-for-37 stretch with 13 strikeouts. Though Noel is dynamic as a power bat, I can’t see him notching a hit here. So, I’ll grab the under 0.5 hits for Noel.
Another positive reason to back the under is that once Skubal is out of the game, Guardians manager Steven Vogt will pull Noel for lefty Will Brennan if a righty replaces Skubal. Vogt showed off his aggressiveness in Game 3 when he pulled Brennan for Noel before Brennan recorded an at-bat because the Tigers let Keider Montero pitch just one inning. With two managers who change pitchers and lineups with regularity, it'll help us in this spot.
Steven Kwan 2+ Total Bases (+160)
I would argue the most impressive hitter in this series is Steven Kwan, who looks like the hitter who hit around .400 for the first couple of months of 2024 instead of the one who magically forgot to hit for the last few months.
Kwan has collected 2+ total bases in three of four ALDS games. Coincidentally, Kwan got just one hit in game two and went 1-3 against Skubal, with a single being the lone hit.
I’m not counting on Kwan for an extra-base hit, but his elite plate coverage allows him to reach pitches high and low and connect on them for base hits. I love Kwan in this spot, and occupying the leadoff spot presents ample opportunity to get a hit.
