Guardians vs. Yankees ALDS Odds
| Guardians Series Price | +170 |
| Yankees Series Price | -200 |
Series Schedule
- Game 1: Tuesday, Oct. 11 (7:37 p.m. ET, TBS)
- Game 2: Thursday, Oct. 13 (7:37 p.m. ET, TBS)
- Game 3: Saturday, Oct. 15
- Game 4: Sunday, Oct. 16 (if necessary)
- Game 5: Monday, Oct. 17 (if necessary)
Cleveland Guardians
- World Series Odds: +1600
- Pennant Odds: +500
- Regular Season Record: 92-70
- Pythagorean Record: 88-74
- Team wRC+ (Rank): 99 (16th)
- Starting Pitching xFIP (Rank): 3.96 (14th)
- Bullpen xFIP (Rank): 3.47 (2nd)
Odds via FanDuel
Pythagorean record via Baseball Reference
Stat rankings via FanGraphs
How They Got Here
The Guardians weren’t given much of a shot in the preseason in a division expected to be dominated by the White Sox and resurgent Twins.
Both of those teams disappointed, however, and Cleveland took full advantage, putting the division away for good with a three-game sweep of the White Sox in mid-September.
The Guardians went 21-8 in the month of September, topping 90 wins for the fifth time in the past six full seasons to return to the postseason for the first time since 2020 and for the fifth time in the past seven years.
The Guardians beat the Rays in two games in the AL Wild Card Round.
Offense
The Guardians’ offense doesn’t overwhelm, ranking just 18th in wRC+ at 98, last among playoff teams and behind such non-qualifiers as the Red Sox, Giants and Orioles.
However, the Guardians grind down pitching staffs with an uncanny ability to put the bat on the ball. They strike out just 18.3% of the time, the lowest mark in the majors by more than a full percentage point.
They also walk at the fifth-lowest rate, however, so it’s less patience than it is the best bat-to-ball ability in the sport. That approach is led, of course, by likely top-5 MVP finisher Jose Ramirez, but the Guardians have also found unlikely contributors from the likes of first-time All-Star Andres Gimenez (who actually tops Ramirez in fWAR), and rookie Steven Kwan.
Rotation
Shane Bieber may never be the dominant force we saw during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but he’s still the definite ace of the rotation, putting together another sub-3.00 ERA and staying healthy for the duration of the season after injuries shortened his 2021 campaign.
Behind him as the unquestioned No. 2 is Triston McKenzie, who will come close to 200 innings in his first full season and also sports a sub-3.00 ERA while leading the team in K-rate. He also has a walk rate right around 2 per nine.
Behind those two is a mixed bag of sorts. Cal Quantrill’s ERA is far superior to his expected indicators, while Aaron Civale is the inverse of Quantrill. Zach Plesac is still around, but expect the Guardians to rely on those first four for as long as their playoff run lasts.
Bullpen
Cleveland’s bullpen is among its most distinct strengths, ranking alongside the Astros and Yankees as the best in the American League. Emmanuel Clase broke out to become one of the most dominant closers in all of baseball this season, with an ERA below 1.50 and expected indicators to say it’s not very fluky.
Behind him is James Karinchak, Trevor Stephan, Sam Hentges, Enyel De Los Santos, Eli Morgan and Nick Sandlin. There’s hardly a household name among the group, but there’s also not an ERA above 3.50. –Collin Whitchurch
New York Yankees
- World Series Odds: +500
- Pennant Odds: +190
- Regular Season Record: 99-63
- Pythagorean Record: 106-56
- Team wRC+ (Rank): 115 (4th)
- Starting Pitching xFIP (Rank): 3.55 (5th)
- Bullpen xFIP (Rank): 3.80 (11th)
How They Got Here
The Yankees got off to a fast start and cruised to their first division title since 2019. New York was 56-21 through the first three months of the season and built up a sizable lead in the American League East.
The Yankees went through some struggles in the second half of the season as they played .500 ball in July and went just 10-18 (.357) in August. However, the club seemingly got back on track with a strong September and will enter the postseason with plenty of momentum.
Of course, when it comes to the Yankees, a strong regular season is never the goal. The 2022 season marks the Yankees sixth straight trip to the postseason, but the organization hasn’t won the World Series since 2009.
Offense
Any conversation about the Yankees offense has to start with Aaron Judge, who now holds the American League single-season home run record after going deep XX times.
Not only did Judge put forth a massive power display in 2022, but he also flirted with the triple crown as he hit .311 and drove in 131 runs. There’s little doubt Judge will win the AL MVP and deservedly so after he set career highs in numerous categories.
However, the Yankees’ offense is not just a one-man show. After all, the club averaged over five runs per game, the best mark in the AL. In addition to Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres each hit over 20 homers and, as a result, the Yankees finished top two in the AL in runs, slugging percentage and OPS.
Rotation
Gerrit Cole gave up the most homers of his career (33), but still turned in another strong campaign as he finished with a 3.50 ERA and 257 strikeouts over 200 2/3 innings.
The Yankees went out and acquired Frankie Montas at the trade deadline, but he has struggled in New York and wound up on the injured list late in the season.
Luis Severino, Jameson Taillon and Nestor Cortes may not be household names, but they all helped the Yankees finish second in the AL in both ERA and WHIP.
And, when the Yankees’ offense is firing on all cylinders, they don't necessarily need a string of dominant starters, but rather a collection of serviceable arms to match up and hold an opponent to three or fewer runs.
Bullpen
Clay Holmes, a first-time All-Star, anchors a unit that finished top five in the AL in ERA, WHIP and batting average against. Holmes finished the season with 20 saves, a 2.42 xERA and ranked in the 90th percentile or better in numerous categories (xBA, xSLG, Barrel %, xERA, xwOBA).
However, the second half has been a bit of a struggle as he missed the end of the regular season with a strained shoulder and previously spent time on the IL with lower back spasms.
If Holmes isn’t healthy, the Yankees relief corps certainly takes a dip. –Will Boor
