Guardians vs Yankees Game 5 Picks, Projections, Odds for ALDS MLB Playoffs

Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on both futures and individual games for that day.

Below, I will address how to handle betting on these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.

You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action Network App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).

You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.

Using my projections, where can we find actionable value on Monday?

Series Moneyline Corner

First, let's take a look at my updated projected series prices for both the Divisional Round and the NLCS before Monday's games:

The Guardians–Yankees series projection matches my Game 5 moneyline projection. As a reminder, you might find different prices in two markets (Game 5 money vs. series price) on the same book, so check both markets. We'll get into Guardians-Yankees Game 5 on its own below.

And the same goes for the NLCS: you might find those odds under either series price or the NL Pennant markets. Make sure to check both.

I set the Phillies as a slight favorite of the NLCS and bet their NL Pennant odds at +110 on Sunday. You can play that line down to +107 (48.4% implied) at a two percent edge compared to my series line.

Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees, 7:07 p.m. ET

Aaron Civale vs. Jameson Taillon (full projections here)

Rotation depth will factor into a winner-take-all Game 5 as Jameson Taillon (4.20 xERA, 3.79 xFIP) faces Aaron Civale (3.80 xERA, 3.62 xFIP) in a battle of No. 4 starters.

Despite a 4.92 ERA, underlying metrics suggest that Civale may be the more effective arm; he just got a bit unlucky this season, stranding 62.5% of baserunners (72.3% career, league average 72.6%) with a BABIP roughly 10 points higher than league average, and 20 points above his career norm.

Civale does carry a home run problem (career 1.33 HR/9) — a potential issue against the best home run-hitting team in the majors — and he has shown reverse splits for his career (3.81 xFIP vs. lefties, 4.36 vs. righties) while relying on a cutter, curveball and sinkerball mix.

Civale bumped his curveball to a career-high usage rate this season (27.5%, +11.3% year over year), and it proved to be his most effective pitch on a per-pitch basis.

As a team, the Yankees had a top-five offense against fastballs and curveballs but ranked 22nd against cutters. Based on Civale's arsenal and Yankees hitters against those three pitch types, I would look at player props for Aaron Judge and Josh Donaldson for Game 5.

I would expect a quick hook for Civale in a must-win game with a relatively rested bullpen behind him. Cleveland's best relievers have had two full days off, and I give the Guardians' bullpen a clear edge (roughly 14% better) in the late innings. They have both the more talented pitchers and a rest advantage.

Wandy Peralta has pitched three consecutive days for the Yankees. Any appearance by Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loaisiga, Lou Trivino or Clarke Schmidt would mark their third game in four days.

Still, I would expect a quick hook for Taillon too. He limits walks but doesn't generate a ton of strikeouts either, which could be problematic against a Guardians offense that doesn't strike out at all against righties.

As we have seen all year — and throughout this series — the Guardians excel at putting the ball in play and floating singles (or sometimes triples) into the space between the infielders and the outfielders. They don't hit for power but force you to make plays.

And unless your pitching can overpower them, it just gives them more opportunities to get lucky and piece together rallies, even against the No. 1 defensive team in baseball.

Call them a luckbox if you want, but the Guardians' five-hit, ninth-inning rally in Game 3 featured hits with expected batting averages of .680, .880, .660, .370 and .460. They look like cheap hits, but not all of them are and sometimes they benefit just from making contact.

Taillon will look to rely on his fastball command to get through innings unscathed. Cleveland ranked 27th against four-seam fastballs and sinkers on a per-pitch basis. The Guardians should have more success against his secondary stuff (13th vs. sliders, 17th vs. cutters, 21st vs. curveballs), but overall, this seems like a lousy matchup since Taillon rarely throws a changeup (career 7.5% usage); and the Guardians smashed changeups better than any other team this season.

Taillon is at his best when he elevates the fastball and buries the curve low in the zone — and I'd expect that to be his primary plan of attack on Monday:

On paper, Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan match up reasonably well against Taillon; I'll also scan their player props.

I don't see value on either side of the moneyline in either half of Game 5.

Cleveland is close to the value side of the equation, but I need something closer to +148 in the first five innings (F5) and +152 for the full game to back its moneyline.

I see value in the Under 7.5 and played that total around open nearer to even money, but I would still bet that up to -128 and as low as 7 (-109), compared to my projection of 6.5.

I would consider betting an F5 Under 4 at -113 or better; however, I prefer the full game total, considering the lack of predictability for who the managers might deploy if either starter gets into trouble in the fourth and fifth innings.

And if the game is tied or if Cleveland is down by one run after the bullpens enter, I might look to fire live on the Guardians' side, considering their potential bullpen advantage.

Bets for October 17

• Guardians/Yankees Under 7.5 (-120, Risk 1u at BetMGM), bet to 7 (-109)

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