The ALCS is finally upon us, and it has all the makings of a classic series. The New York Yankees are set to host the Cleveland Guardians in Game 1 in what should be an offensive affair tonight.
With that in mind, let's breakdown two hitters who have value in my Guardians vs Yankees player props and my MLB picks for Monday, October 14.
Guardians vs Yankees Game 1 Player Props
- Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145, DraftKings)
- Jhonkensy Noel Over 1.5 Batter Strikeouts (+145, bet365)
Juan Soto Player Props: Favorable Matchup for Yankees' Slugger
This is the one matchup that jumps off the page. Juan Soto has hit right-handed pitching exceedingly well this season, hitting .293 with a .285 ISO against them.
Tonight, he'll get to take his first at-bat (at least) against Guardians starter Alex Cobb. Since returning from injury, Cobb has struggled to get left-handed hitters out, as they are hitting .296 off him, and he has a 4.70 ERA against lefties as well.
Given that Aaron Judge is protecting Soto in the Yankees lineup, it's highly unlikely that they pitch around Soto in the first inning. He'll have the opportunity to jump on Alex Cobb, and all the numbers point to a Soto connection heading for extra bases.
Jhonkensy Noel Player Props: Fade This Strikeout-Prone Hitter Today
Guardians' rookie right-fielder Jhonesky Noel has a ton of raw power, but with that big power has come a lot of swing-and-misses at the big-league level. While he does not have enough at-bats to qualify, Noel ranks in the bottom-10% of hitters in chase, whiff, and strikeout rate.
He is a very strikeout-prone hitter who will face a lethal lefty in Carlos Rodon. Rodon has had mixed results this season, but the one area he's been consistent in is getting strikeouts, regardless of whether his outing turns out good or bad.
Rodon has struck out 195 batters this season, and 157 of those hitters were righties, and he averaged 6.1 per start. I'm expecting him to strike out Noel at least once, with his second punchout likely coming against one of the electric arms in the Yankees' bullpen.
