The Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees will battle it out on Monday night in a win-or-go-home Game 5.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Enter PrizePicks.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Monday and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s Guardians-Yankees game.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Giancarlo Stanton Hitter Fantasy Score Under 6
For Game 5, all the reports suggest that we are getting a bullpen game from both sides. Considering that each relief staff is among the best in baseball, we should expect a low-scoring affair.
Since September 1, Cleveland's relief pitching ranks fourth in the league in ERA, second in WHIP, second in BA, first in SLG, second in wOBA and sixth in FIP.
The first Yankees hitter we are fading in this contest is Giancarlo Stanton.
Going back to Cleveland's relief staff for a second, the unit is tremendous across the board, but is particularly dominant in limiting home runs, which is bad news for Stanton.
Four of Stanton's last five hits are home runs, and if he is not going deep against this bullpen, then he is not getting over this total.
If you take away those four home runs, he is just 1-for-30 (!!) over his last 10 games.
Allowing just 0.6 HR per nine innings since the beginning of September, this bullpen should shut down Stanton.
Oswaldo Cabrera Under 0.5 Total Bases
The other New York hitter we are fading is Oswaldo Cabrera. He is in a similar situation to Stanton in this game in the sense that he is typically home-run dependent.
If you take out his two home runs over his last 10 games, he is just 4-for-31 (.129 BA) at the dish.
When facing Cleveland's relief staff in this series, Cabrera is 0-for-6 with six strikeouts.
While Cabrera has put up some decent numbers this year, his metrics are more concerning. Through 43 games, he has produced a .286 xwOBA, .219 xBA and .359 xSLG.
Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 Strikeouts
Like the Guardians, the Yankees possess a strong bullpen. Since September 1, New York's relief pitching ranks sixth in the league in ERA, seventh in SLG, 14th in wOBA and eighth in FIP.
The first Cleveland hitter we are fading in this game is Jose Ramirez. While he is the best hitter on this team, he has been striking out on a relatively consistent basis over the last month.
Over his last 22 games, Ramirez has gone over this total 15 times. Between those 22 games, he has amassed a 21.5 K%.
Through six playoff games this postseason, he has struck out at least once in five of them. Across those six games, he has struck out seven times over 27 at-bats (25.9 K%).
Austin Hedges Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
We are getting this prop because, in terms of probability, it is not too difficult to notch one of these in an MLB game.
However, Hedges has been awful at the dish over the last month.
In fact, he has gone over this total just twice in his last 15 games. Across that stretch, the catcher is a terrible 2-for-41 (.049 BA) at the plate.
It is relatively easy for a hitter to luck into one of these categories, but with how bad Hedges has been, I will take my chances of him not reaching base.
This year, he has produced a mere .240 xwOBA, .183 xBA and .264 xSLG.
