The New York Yankees are one game away from moving on to the World Series, and they will send Carlos Rodon back to the hill on Saturday to face the Guardians. This time, in Cleveland. Opening pitch from Progressive Field is set for 8:08 p.m. ET on TBS and truTV.
In an even-friendlier matchup, we'll back Rodon and a pair of New York bats. Let's get to my Guardians vs Yankees same game parlay for Game 5 and my MLB picks for Saturday, October 19.
Guardians vs Yankees Game 5 Parlay
- Carlos Rodon 6+ Strikeouts (+114)
- Gleyber Torres to Record a Run (-115)
- Aaron Judge 2+ Total Bases (+100)
Parlay Odds: +583 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
We'll go back to the well here and hunt Carlos Rodon's strikeout prop for a second time in this series in the midst of a magical run in that department.
Yes, the Guardians may be known as a team which has historically limited the strikeouts with their excellent contact ability, but that didn't stop Rodon from racking up nine punchouts across six innings in Game 1 of this series. Cleveland has still struck out in over 22% of its plate appearances this postseason, and while the last three Yankees to take the ball didn't have the same level of success that Rodon did, they don't possess the same kind of stuff.
Rodon finished the year with a 30.1% strikeout rate in the month of September with an even-better 35% whiff rate, and here in the postseason, he's induced them at a 41.6% rate to help strike out 41% of the batters he's faced.
The lefty has always had this kind of stuff, and with seven strikeouts in just 3 2/3 innings versus the Royals and his excellent Game 1 showing, I expect more of the same. As a fly-ball pitcher, he's pitching in a better ballpark to get outs in too, so Rodon should stand an excellent chance of working deep into this one — particularly with the Yankees' bullpen struggling on back-to-back nights. He might only need five innings to hit this number, but he might go as far as seven.
It's hard to ignore what Gleyber Torres has done out of the leadoff spot this year. He's slashing .283/.350/.405 out of the top spot this season, and that's continued into the postseason where he's reached base in 40% of his plate appearances with a .334 Expected Batting Average to boot — ranked second on the team.
Torres is now 2-for-5 in his career against Game 5 starter Tanner Bibee with a pair of doubles, and with some scalding-hot bats behind him such as Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton and now Aaron Judge, apparently — he should be able to come around to score once again when he inevitably reaches base a couple more times here.
Torres has scored a run in six of eight games this postseason, totaling eight in all, and in the leadoff spot, he will have a chance to potentially come to bat five times here — something he's done in every playoff game this season. I love the matchup for Judge, as we'll get to in a moment, and it's hard not to love what the rest of the guys behind him in the order have been doing in recent games. I expect him to touch home plate once again.
Don't look now, but Aaron Judge is beginning to heat up.
He's now cobbled together a three-game hitting streak in this series, including two home runs, and over that span his xBA has come in at .276 with a monstrous 62.5% hard-hit rate.
He may have failed to get a hit in his lone plate appearance against Bibee, but he did connect with the ball at over 103 mph off the bat and enters into a great matchup with the fly-ball pitcher.
Against these types, Judge hit .309 this season with a .715 slugging percentage and 178 total bases — the highest marks on the team in the split by a wide margin. He's also put up a .359 xBA and .828 Expected Slugging against four-seamers from right-handers across the regular season and playoffs with marks of .307 and .714 against cut fastballs from righties.
He'll mainly see those two offerings from Bibee here, as the strikeout-hunter pitches to a ton of contact against a team which has been excellent at avoiding third strikes, and I think plenty of damage will ensue from Judge in particular.
