MLB Home Run Derby Odds, Picks
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | +320 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | +340 |
| Julio Rodriguez | +450 |
| Luis Robert Jr. | +500 |
| Adolis Garcia | +750 |
| Randy Arozarena | +1100 |
| Mookie Betts | +1200 |
| Adley Rutschman | +1700 |
The 2023 MLB Home Run Derby is set to take place Monday night at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN from T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Eight sluggers will face off in a bracket format to crown this year's ultimate home run hitter.
The Home Run Derby also happens to be one of MLB's marquee betting events of the summer. There are obviously no MLB games today, and no other major North American sports leagues have games going on today either.
That puts MLB's showcase front and center, and there are a myriad of ways you can bet the market, from outright winner, to head-to-head matchups, longest home runs, farthest home runs and more.
Our MLB analysts are, of course, all over this, and have broken down their favorite bets and picks for tonight's event, which you can read about below.
Mookie Betts to Win Home Run Derby (+1700)
Odds via FanDuel
D.J. James:Mookie Betts, the sixth seed, has to face a Home Run Derby veteran in the first round. That said, he resides on the opposite side of the bracket from Luis Robert, Adley Rutschman, Randy Arozarena and Adolis García. If he gets past Vladimir Guerrero Jr., he might be in good shape.
Betts is only 5-foot-9 and 180 pounds – but don’t let his stature fool you.
His Average Exit Velocity ranks in the 92nd percentile. His Barrel Rate ranks in the 82nd percentile. His max Average Exit Velocity is 110.1 mph, which is a little less than some of the big hitters in the field. However, given how hard he consistently hits the ball, he should be able to put on a good showing.
Betts has 26 bombs, which ties Robert and Pete Alonso for the most in the field. He trails only Guerrero and Arozarena in Average Exit Velocity. Only Alonso is ahead of him in xISO. Finally, Betts has the best xSLG in the field.
He should not be this underpriced.
Of course, he is going to see batting practice pitching, so it’s not comparable to what he sees in actual games. But if he can hammer regular pitching, he will do the same in the Home Run Derby.
Betts hits the ball with the best in the field, so being a massive underdog does not make sense. Play him to +900.
Tony Sartori:This line is so disrespectful. Betts is tied for third in MLB in home runs with 26. Furthermore, he possesses perhaps the best underlying power metrics of all participants.
Betts ranks in the 92nd percentile in Average Exit Velocity, 87th percentile in hard-hit percentage, and 97th percentile in xSLG. A pull-heavy hitter who has seen an increase in his swing speed this year, this event should set up perfectly for the Dodgers superstar.
The biggest reason for his 20/1 return is that he is facing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the first round. Guerrero made it to the finals in his first and only appearance in the Derby (2019), but that was only after narrowly beating Joc Pederson in a swing-off in the second round.
Betts' road will be difficult. But, at 20/1, I will gladly back one of the best power hitters in baseball.
Finally, do not go crazy with betting on the Home Run Derby. Just throw some beer money on someone, crack open a Coors Light and enjoy the show. After all, you are probably just going to bet on the player you like the most while his neighbor's uncle's insurance salesman tries his best to lob a 50 mph pitch relatively close to the strike zone.
BJ Cunningham: This is kind of an insane price when you dig into the Statcast data for Mookie Betts. He’s hit 26 home runs this season, and his expected home runs if every one of them took place in T-Mobile Park would be 27. That’s the third-most in the home run field and most in the bottom half of the bracket.
He has the highest Sweet Spot Percentage in the Home Run Derby field at well at over 39% and the highest launch angle at 19.1 degrees. So why is he one of the longshots? Well, he’s 5-foot-9, 170 pounds in a long-ball endurance event. But Betts is a veteran, and given the Statcast numbers he’s putting up, it’s a little crazy that he’s this big of a longshot.
He’ll have Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough throwing to him in the Derby. Betts describes him as his “favorite coach ever,” so there should be no chemistry problems.
T-Mobile Park dimensions are pretty much the exact same going to left or right field, but the wind will be blowing out to left center field at 8-10 mph during the Home Run Derby, which will give right-handed pull hitters an advantage. Betts is pulling the ball at 48% this season, which the highest of his career.
Betts is on the difficult side of the bracket and in the first round is matched against Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who dazzled in his first Home Run Derby. However, Betts has a better launch angle, sweet spot %, and more expected home runs than Guerrero this season, so it’s not a foregone conclusion that he'll be blown out of the water.
Adley Rutschman to Win Home Run Derby (+1700)
Odds via FanDuel & BetMGM
Kenny Ducey:I think you can make a good case for Rutschman winning this thing, so at this price I simply can’t pass him up.
Rutschman enters as the only potential left-handed hitter in the field (he is a switch hitter), which should give him an advantage, albeit a slight one.
T-Mobile Park is 326 feet down the line to right and 331 feet to left, and on top of that, we’ve seen an advantage for lefties in Seattle. In night games played at T-Mobile Park this year, the home run factor is a whopping 110 for lefties and 98 for righties, according to Statcast. For context, just six parks have an overall number of at least 110.
I also think it’s unfair to criticize Rutschman’s ability to hit home runs simply because he has just 11 (and 12 expected homers, according to Statcast). Rutschman’s pull rate of 35% is around two points lower than the league average and his opposite-field hit rate is six points higher than average. So, it’s probably his ability to spray the ball that’s kept him from hitting more homers.
Should Rutschman take aim at the right-field seats, I think he should outperform his current projections. That would seem to make his current price a bit out there.
Adolis Garcia to Win Home Run Derby (+650)
Odds via FanDuel
Collin Wilson:The two main components of handicapping a Home Run Derby involve how hard a player hits the ball and pitcher continuity.
There are always outliers, as Robinson Cano won the 2011 Derby with his father as the pitcher, but in the case of Adolis Garcia, the outfielder will bring an arm familiar with the rules. Rangers third base coach Tony Beasley served up plenty of balls in 2021 to Joey Gallo, who hit nine in the final minute but ultimately fell to hometown contestant Trevor Story. In Beasley, our wager will involve a pitcher with experience under the lights tossing grapefruits over the plate.
Garcia has been one of the most powerful hitters in MLB, entering Sunday at 23 home runs. The outfielder's spray chart indicates his total would be boosted to 29 if all games were played in T-Mobile. At 41, Garcia has the most Barrels on the season of any contestant in the Derby. Expected Home Runs tells the same story, with 26 “mostly gone” and four no-doubt hit balls on the season.
While Garcia has a max home run distance of 432 on the season, the Rangers All-Star averaged more than 450 feet over the previous two seasons. There is no doubt Garcia has the pop to eclipse the 440-foot mark to generate bonus swings.
Mike Ianniello:When looking for a guy who can hit a lot of home runs, the first thing I look at is barrel rate. You want a guy who consistently makes solid contact with the barrel of the bat.
It’s no surprise that reigning MVP Aaron Judge ranks first, and current home run leader Shohei Ohtani ranks fourth.
When looking at this year’s Home Run Derby field, it immediately jumps out that Adolis Garcia has the highest barrel rate (12th in the league). He has 41 barrels on the season, which ranks fourth.
Garcia is having the best season of his career, and his 23 home runs rank sixth in the league and are well on pace for a career high. His average exit velocity ranks 16th.
Despite Garcia ranking fourth in the field in home runs, fourth in xSLG and first in barrel rate, he is priced with the fifth-best odds. He enters the Derby in great form, with three home runs in the last week.
Garcia also has a favorable draw, with the two betting favorites on the other side of the bracket. He potentially avoids two-time champion Pete Alonso until the finals.
At +700, I think Garcia has a lot of value. He profiles much closer to the favorites than his price indicates.
Luis Robert to Win Home Run Derby (+550)
Odds via Caesars
Anthony Dabbundo: Luis Robert Jr. has the second-highest barrel rate in 2023 of all of the Home Run Derby participants. One of his biggest problems as a hitter in normal games is that he has a high chase rate and often makes poor swing decisions.
If you take that variable out of the equation in a batting practice setting like Monday night, players like Adolis Garcia and Robert benefit from just unleashing their raw power on the baseball.
Robert has showcased max exit velocity as high as 117 in 2022, and there are some questions about the two betting favorites in front of him. Pete Alonso and Vlad Guerrero Jr. have the pedigree as past champions or contenders, but Alonso's numbers are way down since returning from that injury and Guerrero's high-end power output has seen a solid decline in the last couple seasons.
Robert also gets the added benefit of the easiest first round matchup, against Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman. He's in the half of the bracket opposite the three other past participants — Julio Rodriguez, Alonso and Guerrero.
Given his path to the final and his elite power, Robert should be the favorite for me.
Adolis Garcia to Reach Finals (+220)
Odds via DraftKings
Charlie DiSturco:Staying away from the bracket of death, a player whom I think has a ton of value as one to make a deep run in the Home Run Derby is Adolis Garcia.
Obviously, this is completely different than facing major-league pitching, but Garcia carries an incredibly powerful swing. He’s in the top 6% of all hitters in Barrel Rate and Max Exit Velocity, and he is the No. 1 hitter among his group of four in xSLG.
For what it’s worth, he’s No. 1 in Barrel Rate among all contestants in the Home Run Derby.
Garcia opens as a short favorite in his first-round matchup against Randy Arozarena. From there, he would face the winner of Luis Robert vs. Adley Rutschman. That means he avoids the quadrant of hometown star Julio Rodriguez, two-time Derby champ Pete Alonso and both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Mookie Betts.
In a group with no prior Home Run Derby experience, I like taking a stab on Garcia to make a run.
Both of his matchups come as a near-coin flip — Garcia is a slight favorite in the first and Robert in the second if he wins against Rutschman — so at +220, the value is enough for me to back the slugger.
Randy Arozarena Over Adolis Garcia in Round 1 (+120)
Odds via Caesars
Alex Hinton:Heading into the All-Star break, Adolis Garcia holds an edge with 23 home runs to just 16 for Randy Arozarena. However, this is an even matchup on paper. Garcia has an edge in Barrel Percentage and Arozarena has an edge in Average Exit Velocity. They are also tied in Hard Hit Percentage.
However, in this spot, I am backing the underdog.
Garcia will hit his fair share of home runs, but he is homerless in six games and 25 ABs in Seattle this season. Last weekend, Arozarena homered twice in a three-game series against the Mariners. He also used the series to prep for the Home Run Derby in batting practice.
Additionally, Arozarena is a player who likes the bright lights and the big stage. In 2020, he hit 10 home runs in the playoffs, including four in the ALCS when he was named MVP.
This year, he delivered several clutch hits in the World Baseball Classic for Mexico. He finished hitting .450 and was unanimously named to the All-World Baseball Classic Team.
The Home Run Derby is another event where Arozarena might steal the show. I don't mind taking a flyer on him to win outright, though I would prefer over +1000, personally.
At the very least, I am backing him to get past Garcia.
Julio Rodriguez Over Pete Alonso in Round 1 (+124)
Odds via FanDuel
Sean Zerillo: Among Home Run Derby participants in my lifetime, Mark McGwire (1999), Josh Hamilton (2008), and Julio Rodriguez (2022) have the top three performances that stuck with me through the years. Yet, none of those three players won those respective competitions.
Rodriguez launched 81 home runs last season, the second-most ever in a Home Run Derby. Unfortunately, he'll likely have to get past the players who rank first (Vlad Guerrero Jr., 91 in 2019) and third (Pete Alonso, 74 in 2021) to make the finals again.
Aside from home-field advantage, there are reasons to prefer Rodriguez in his first-round matchup against the two-time Derby champion, Alonso.
Rodriguez ranks second in the field with a 115.5 mph max exit velocity, while Alonso (113.7 mph) ranks fourth. Additionally, although Alonso has a higher barrel rate, Rodriguez has a much higher average exit velocity (93rd vs. 49th percentile) and hard-hit rate (92nd vs. 52nd percentile).
Additionally, Alonso has struggled offensively since returning prematurely from a wrist injury in June, posting a .153/.265/.361 triple slash line across 83 plate appearances (78 wRC+), and I question whether he's fully healthy.
Bet Rodriguez to upset the contest favorite in the first round, and consider betting him outright (+550 at DraftKings) or to beat either Adolis Garcia (+2000) or Randy Arozarena (+3000) in an exact result prop.
