Home Run Derby Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | +190 |
| Kyle Schwarber | +330 |
| Juan Soto | +650 |
| Julio Rodriguez | +700 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | +750 |
| Corey Seager | +1200 |
| Jose Ramirez | +1800 |
| Albert Pujols | +2400 |
Odds via Caesars as of Monday morning
The 2022 MLB Home Run Derby is set for tonight at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, where eight of the game's premiere sluggers will take center stage in the pinnacle event of MLB's All-Star Break.
The Home Run Derby is also a betting spectacle and the odds for tonight's event are intriguing. Pete Alonso is the heavy favorite after winning two straight, while Kyle Schwarber — who leads the field in regular season home runs — checks in right behind him.
Who will take this year's title? Our analysts dive into the odds below and state their cases for who you should throw your cash behind ahead of tonight's event.
Home Run Derby Best Bets
Julio Rodriguez +900
Odds via BetMGM
DJ James: Julio Rodríguez is one of the most intriguing names in baseball right now. Rodríguez will face Corey Seager in the first round of this as the underdog and overall six-seed.
Rodríguez does not have the usual features of a live ‘dog. For one, his peak exit velocity this season is 115 mph. This ranks in the 97th percentile of the MLB. In addition, he has a hard hit rate over 50% and an average exit velocity of nearly 92 mph. All of this has contributed to his 16 homers over 90 games.
However, he did not start taking off until May, where he hit his first bomb. He has 16 dingers over the course of 269 at bats. This accounts for a homer nearly 6% of the time.
This is more than enough for a small wager on the rookie phenom to win the Home Run Derby. If he gets past Seager, he will have to face either Pete Alonso (the reigning champion) or Ronald Acuña, Jr., who ranks in the 98th percentile of maximum exit velocity.
Take Rodríguez to +800. He is being undervalued given his potential.
Kyle Schwarber +330
Odds via Caesars
Nick Shlain: While Aaron Judge leads all of baseball with 33 home runs, he isn't in the home run derby this year.
Kyle Schwarber leads the participants with 29 long balls in the first half of the season and comes in at +330 to win the home run derby on DraftKings and Caesars.
Pete Alonso, who has 24 home runs, is the two-time defending home run derby champion, but we have to keep in mind the format includes a bracket and Schwaber, not Alonso, is the top seed.
For being the top seed, Schwarber will have a matchup with Albert Pujols in round one. So the guy with more home runs and better odds than Alonso also has a better matchup in the first round as Alonso will square off with Braves superstar Ronald Acuna Jr.
I think there's value on Schwarber at +330 and would bet it down to +300.
Pete Alonso +200
Odds via DraftKings
Nicholas Martin: Although it's not a lot of fun to try to preach that the chalk holds value , it's a valid argument that Pete Alonso is winning this competition at a greater clip than 33% of the time as suggested by this number.
Alonso will begin his quest to three-peat in a matchup against Ronald Acuna Jr, who has become somewhat of a trendy pick to win based upon his hard-hit and barrel rates this season, which are the best in the competition.
However, looking toward numbers against actual in-game pitches on a 1-to-1 value, and what we have seen from Alonso in each of the last two of these competitions, makes me believe he is worthy of being even a heavier favorite over the rest of the field.
Recent in-game results still support Alonso's case as well though, as he has put seven balls in play with exit velocities above 110 mph over the last 14 days, and seems to be entering this contest as powerful as ever.
Juan Soto +650
Odds via Caesars
Alex Hinton: Juan Soto is one of the game's top left-handed power threats. He comes into the HR Derby hot with five home runs in 40 at-bats in the month of July. Soto is competing in his third home run derby. That prior experience should help him this year. Last year, Soto hit 46 home runs and set a record for the longest home run with a 520-foot blast in Denver.
This year, the bracket sets up favorably for Soto. He is favored (-180 on DraftKings) to beat Jose Ramirez in the first round. From there, he would face the winner of Kyle Schwarber/Albert Pujols. More important, Soto is on the opposite side of the bracket of Pete Alonso. The Mets first baseman knocked Soto out of the second round, which I am sure Soto remembers.
Alonso is going for an unprecedented third consecutive home run derby title. However, he would have to win two rounds to face Soto. If he does, Soto has the power to take him out, in addition to Dodger Stadium being slightly more favorable to left-handed hitters. At +650, the value lies with Soto in that matchup compared to Alonso, whose best line is +200 is on DraftKings.
Lastly, Soto appears to want out of D.C. after turning down yet another contract extension. General managers around the league already know how good Soto is. However, what better way is there for Soto to remind them than by putting a show and winning the Home Run Derby in front of the national audience?
Corey Seager +1200
Odds via Caesars
Jules Posner: Defending derby champion Pete Alonso looks to go "three-Pete" at Monday night's home run derby. Presently he sits at +200 odds to win, and frankly, Pete was born for this. His setup and swing are designed to leverage his mass and get the ball in the air. He has a simple and repeatable swing, that makes it so the only way he can lose, is if he gets in his own head.
Kyle Schwarber's odds sit at +330, which is the second best odds in the derby. Like Alonso, he also has a swing designed to leverage his mass and get the ball in the air.
All of that said, I like Corey Seager as a dark-horse candidate. A later addition to the derby crew, Seager has familiarity hitting at Dodger Stadium and like Alonso and Shwarber, he also has similar swing characteristics.
Additionally, this season he's posted a 37.9 hard hit rate, which is the best of any contender in the field. He also has a 39.6 FB% and 23.9 LD%. With those three factors, Seager may be able to smash more pitches through the marine layer in Los Angeles, and possibly pull off the upset.
The Home Run Derby is one of the most exciting skills competitions in all of the major sports' All-Star activities and this should be a fun one tonight. So while Alonso is a rightful favorite and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Schwarber put on a show, Seager has the best value to pull off the upset at his current number.
