It's a relatively busy Monday in baseball with 11 games on the slate. As always, I have MLB home run props and picks.
I have a bunch of home run picks today and they all center on the Padres vs Athletics game.
I believe books are badly mispricing home run props for games at Sutter Health Park, and I'm going to try to take advantage of that with five home run bets for Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom.
Note: While a parlay of these home run picks isn't our formal recommendation, we've put together an easy way to parlay them below via BetMGM.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks for Monday
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 10:05 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Home Run Picks for April 7
Fernando Tatis Jr. (+400; DraftKings)
Tatis gets a slightly below average matchup for HRs going up against Luis Severino, who allows a lot of power to lefties but has been average to righties over the last few years.
The ballpark and the odds are the main reason I'm taking Tatis today.
Sutter Health Park is playing as one of the best ballparks for power and the weather isn't bad for this time of year, with temps near 70 degrees, decent humidity, and winds blowing out slightly.
I have the true odds here for Tatis around +350, making this a good EV bet.
Manny Machado (+475; BetMGM)
Everything I said about Tatis also works for Machado.
The matchup vs. Severino is just average for a righty, but the ballpark and the odds here are great.
Books aren't pricing players right for this game and I have the true odds on Machado around +410.
Brent Rooker (+500; BetMGM)
Rooker is one of the best power bats in the league and even in a tough matchup today, he isn't priced like it.
Michael King is one of the better pitchers at suppressing power vs. righties, but not nearly enough to justify this line.
I have the true odds on Rooker today below +400.
Shea Langeliers (+525; BetMGM)
