Baltimore just can't distance itself in the AL East race. Anytime the Yankees lose, the Orioles lose. The Orioles can't get any real separation and now trail the Bronx Bombers by 1.5 games. We'll see if the Orioles can generate some momentum this weekend against the scalding-hot Astros.
Here's my Astros vs. Orioles prediction.
Astros vs. Orioles Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-130 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +130 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+105 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -155 |
Astros vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| Framber Valdez | Stat | Albert Suarez |
|---|---|---|
| 13-5 | W-L | 604 |
| 2.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.9 |
| 3.20/3.46 | ERA /xERA | 3.18/3.96 |
| 3.35/3.18 | FIP / xFIP | 3.48/4.49 |
| 1.14 | WHIP | 1.29 |
| 3.0 | K-BB% | 2.4 |
| 59.1 | GB% | 34.9 |
| 112 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 97 | Location+ | 99 |
Sean Paul’s Astros vs Orioles Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Can Suarez Extend Scoreless Streak?
The biggest problem surrounding the Orioles is pitching, but one of the few bright spots is veteran right-hander Albert Suarez.
The journeyman is a 34-year-old who's spent time in a myriad of leagues worldwide (Mexico and Korea) and also had a brief stint with the San Francisco Giants. He's pitching to a 3.18 ERA with a 3.70 FIP in 98 innings and is in the midst of a 17 2/3 innings scoreless streak.
Suarez is more of a pitch-to-contact pitcher than someone who will blow opponents away with electric stuff. That puts his 7.3 K/9 into perspective and makes me concerned about his long-term success. Opponents also hit Suarez fairly hard as he ranks in the 41st percentile in xBA and the 59th percentile in average exit velocity.
Once Suarez is out of the game, we'll see the Orioles' biggest flaw — the bullpen. They have the third-worst bullpen in MLB since August, posting a 5.85 ERA and a 5.21 FIP. That's only better than the Red Sox and Rockies — not exactly elite company.
But while pitching is often the scapegoat for its problems, Baltimore's offense is a shell of the offense that had the Orioles in prime position to steal the AL East early in the year.
In August, the Orioles' offense ranks just 14th in MLB with a 103 wRC+.
While it's still an above-average figure, it's not elite enough to alleviate the pitching concerns.
The only hitter with a wRC+ above 110 this month is a HUGE shocker. It's Gunner Henderson! Okay, not a real shocker, but Henderson is Baltimore's only consistent hitter right now. He owns a 154 wRC+ this month.
Also, Anthony Santander is having the quietest 38 homer season possibly ever. He's approaching 40 homers and seemingly nobody discusses it. He's largely had a disappointing month, but his eighth inning grand slam to give the Orioles the win on Friday could be the jolt of energy this offense needed.
Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle need to get rolling again. Both were All-Stars, but have been largely invisible since the break. Rutschman has a .667 OPS with a 78 wRC+ in August and Mountcastle has a 567 OPS with a 60 wRC+.
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Can Houston Rebound From Friday's Loss?
The Houston Astros are officially in cruise control in the AL West as they lead the Mariners by eight games with 33 games to play. Barring some historical collapse, the AL West will run through Houston, yet again. One of the large reasons for the sudden change in performance is a familiar face — Framber Valdez.
Back to being one of the best pitchers in baseball, Valdez lowered his ERA from 4.34 heading into July to 3.20 heading into September. That's primarily due to him posting a 1.94 ERA with an elite 0.82 WHIP over his past seven starts. He's done a tremendous job limiting traffic and has an uncharacteristically high 11.4 K/9.
The Astros' offense has performed very well, even without Kyle Tucker, who looked like a bonafide MVP candidate before suffering a severe leg bruise that's shelved him for multiple months.
They rank 10th in MLB with a 112 wRC+ in August and also have an 8% walk rate and a 21% K Rate — both above league average.
The Astros hold a clear advantage over the Orioles because they know where their offensive production stems from. Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Yainer Diaz all have a wRC+ above 160 in August. Most of Houston's offensive production has come from that trio, while Baltimore continues to look for sources of offensive output beyond Henderson.
Astros vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Astros have the better pitcher, lineup and bullpen, which might be the their biggest advantage. Their bullpen has the second best bullpen in MLB in August with a 2.60 ERA coming into Friday's game. That's likely raised a bit since Bryan Abreu imploded, though. Some of it could be luck related since the FIP sits at 4.06, but I trust the Ryan Pressly and Josh Hader core more than anything on the Orioles roster. It's hard to pass on the Astros at -130 here. I see some real value here on the better team, even on the road.
Pick: Astros Moneyline | Play to -155 |
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Moneyline
The Astros have taken temporary ownership of the Orioles organization this year, winning four of five matchups. It's a trend at this point.
Run Line (Spread)
Well, not only have the Astros won 80% of their games against the Orioles, but they've won by multiple runs each time. There's no reason that can't continue, so I see some decent value in grabbing the Astros -1.5 at +130.
Over/Under
I'll pass on the total here. It's tougher to hit the ball out with deeper dimensions to left field and that could provide some value to the under, but I don't have much confidence.
