The Baltimore Orioles (76-55) will host the Houston Astros (69-60) at Camden Yards on Sunday Night Baseball tonight. Opening pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET on ESPN. After dropping the first game of this highly-anticipated four-game set versus the Astros, the Orioles have come roaring back with two thrilling wins over the past two days to move a game away from locking up a series victory.
A win here could also see the Orioles eclipse the Yankees in the AL East standings once again, while Houston is watch its margin in the AL West dwindle. With Yusei Kikuchi toeing the slab against Dean Kremer, both offenses should have their chances in this one. So, how should we bet this one?
Let's get into my best bet for Astros vs. Orioles prediction for Sunday Night Baseball.
Astros vs. Orioles Sunday Night Baseball Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-112 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +136 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-104 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -164 |
Astros vs Orioles Sunday Night Baseball Projected Starting Pitchers
| Yusei Kikuchi | Stat | Dean Kremer |
|---|---|---|
| 6-9 | W-L | 6-9 |
| 2.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 4.37/4.03 | ERA /xERA | 4.30/4.94 |
| 3.57/3.29 | FIP / xFIP | 4.65/4.54 |
| 1.29 | WHIP | 1.26 |
| 21.1% | K-BB% | 12% |
| 41.5% | GB% | 40.9% |
| 110 | Stuff+ | 87 |
| 102 | Location+ | 101 |
Kenny Ducey’s Astros vs Orioles Sunday Night Baseball Preview
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Need a Big Start From Yusei Kikuchi
The Astros have suddenly fallen into a backslide, losing four of their last five behind some waning offensive production. Their Isolated Power (ISO) is falling back to where it's sat all season, they're recording hits at a lower clip than that year-long average and in the past two weeks their strikeout rate has jumped up to 23.2%. The positives here are that Houston, at long last, is beginning to take walks at a more acceptable clip and while these numbers aren't quite as swollen as they were a few weeks ago they're still firmly above-average.
Still, the offense has deserted them on a few occasions in the last week and that should put the onus on Kikuchi to have a big start.
The veteran left-hander began the year at a blistering pace before declining rather significantly as we came to the end of May, and after two extremely poor months he's found new life in Houston. In four starts, he's compiled a 2.42 ERA behind a stellar 34.1% strikeout rate — a number which is up for the third straight month — and he's paired that with some much more positive numbers on contact.
Kikuchi's back to rolling ground balls up at an acceptable 43.4% clip, which marks his best month since April, and that's helped him pitch to a roughly average .245 Expected Batting Average as his issues with hard-hit balls persist. He's now allowed just three home runs in four outings with the Astros after allowing one per start in July and seven homers in the month of June.
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Is Dean Kremer Any Good?
Where do I begin with Dean Kremer? I was told for many years that this guy was good at pitching, and every time I questioned why, exactly, people would be so firm in that belief.
The righty's ERA now sits at 4.30 with a troubling 4.94 xERA, and while he's been roughly a league-average pitcher if we look at the expected number of hits against him, the two glaring issues have been his bloated .457 Expected Slugging — which is once again 50 points worse than the league norm and — and a poor 9.9% walk rate.
Kremer has worn a season-worst 12.9% walk rate this month, but the good news is that he's made some gains in the xBA and xSLG departments. He's managed to allow just one home run this month, but his ERA still stands at 4.64 with a smattering of hits and a great deal of free passes. He did show some great promise last go around at Citi Field with six innings of one-run ball against a team that hits for plenty of power in the Mets.
Baltimore's hurting big-time at the plate right now, ranking 21st in wRC+ over the last two weeks with a surprising number of strikeouts piling up to few walks. The Orioles' ISO is also now at a measly .156 as the rate at which this offense has converted fly balls into homers has fallen off a cliff from what was once a league-leading clip of over 14%. In the last 14 days, it's stood at just 12.1%.
Astros vs Orioles Sunday Night Baseball Prediction, Betting Analysis
Striving for objectivity as ever, we have to be fair to two pitchers who have drawn my ire for many years. Kikuchi has been a much different pitcher since joining the Astros, and his proficiency in the strikeout department should be on full display with Baltimore not only punching out more in the last couple of weeks, but also owning a strikeout rate three points worse against southpaws this season.
The Orioles' ISO has also taken a dive against lefties, and they've recently been starved for longballs in general, so I think things should set up nicely here for Kikuchi in a friendly park for those looking to pitch to fly balls. The same is true for Kremer, who hasn't been a reliable arm but will run into an offense that has been strikingly similar in its recent shortcomings.
Neither team has displayed any sort of patience at the plate over the last two weeks either, which is a familiar story given they both rank in the bottom-10 of the league in walk rate this season. If walks won't be an issue for these two pitchers, they should be able to find success against two pretty volatile, but objectively flatter, offenses.
I'd make this total a half-run lower, so the price here is delectable.
Moneyline
We've tracked some sharp action hitting the Astros in this one, with 52% of the bets and 56% of the money heading towards Houston here. It's worth noting that there's been very little movement here, as the Orioles opened up at -104 and currently sit around -108.
Run Line (Spread)
The Astros are just 42-53 to the run line this season, and 16-21 to the run line as road favorites this season. They've covered in just one of their last six games, while the Orioles have hit the run line in six of their last seven games and in six straight as underdogs.
Over/Under
There hasn't been much movement in this total, but we have tracked sharp action and big money hitting the under. It's accounted for just 43% of the bets, but 59% of the handle.
The under is 15-13-1 in games where the Orioles enter as underdogs and is 24-12-1 when the Astros are favorites on the road.
