As the MLB season moves deeper into August, every series matters more and more for the playoff race as desperation heightens. While these teams might not necessarily be chasing each other, they are both amid close races.
The Boston Red Sox are 1 1/2 games outside of an AL wild-card spot after winning their series against the Kansas City Royals to help close the gap. The Houston Astros chased down the Seattle Mariners in the AL West and will likely battle with them until the end of the season. The Astros and Mariners are tied atop the AL West entering Friday.
It's probably not the pitching matchup you expected before the season, but both the Astros and Red Sox will have their top rotation option — Ronel Blanco for Houston and Tanner Houck for Boston — on the mound on Friday night. You can find my Astros vs Red Sox prediction and pick for Friday night at Fenway Park below.
Astros vs Red Sox Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+116 | 9.5 -122o / +100u | +1.5 -176 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-136 | 9.5 -122o / +100u | -1.5 +142 |
Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Ronel Blanco (HOU) | Stat | RHP Tanner Houck (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-6 | W-L | 8-8 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.4 |
| 2.98/3.95 | ERA /xERA | 3.09/3.98 |
| 4.43/4.18 | FIP / xFIP | 3.08/3.39 |
| 1.02 | WHIP | 1.14 |
| 14.7% | K-BB% | 15.8% |
| 37.9% | GB% | 55.3% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 109 |
| 99 | Location+ | 102 |
Mike Ianniello’s Astros-Red Sox Preview
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Depend On Ronel Blanco
Entering the season, Ronel Blanco was probably the Astros No. 5 starting pitcher, but he has been their most consistent arm all year. In 21 starts, Blanco has a 2.98 ERA, the fourth-lowest ERA in the American League. Opponents are batting just .180 against him, the second-best mark in the AL.
As good as Blanco has been, he has also been a bit fortunate. His 3.94 xERA is a full run higher than his ERA, the only difference is he is not a ground-ball pitcher. Blanco has allowed a 9.9% barrel rate and has struggled with his command all season.
His success has mostly come from a fantastic slider that has proven to be one of the best pitches in baseball. Only Cade Smith’s fastball and Emmanuel Clase’s cutter have a higher run value than Blanco’s slider, which is tied with Chris Sale's for baseball's best slider by run value.
Houston’s offense will always be fine as long as they have Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman. However, the injury to Kyle Tucker in early June has been a massive loss. Houston ranks 13th — right around league average — in wOBA and wRC+ since Tucker went on the injured list.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Sox Bats are Surging
Tanner Houck had success out of the Boston bullpen a few years ago but has had a breakout campaign as a starter this season. The 6-foot-5 righthander has a 3.09 ERA, the ninth-best mark in the American League.
Houck’s success can be pointed to his elite groundball rate. After eliminating his cutter and fastball usage in favor of an increased splitter usage, Houck has generated a 54.7% groundball rate this season.
He could be due for a bit of negative regression, as his 3.96 xERA is almost a full run higher than his ERA. But pitchers with high groundball rates tend to outperform their expected metrics. A 43.7% hard-hit rate is not very good, but it’s less of an issue when the hard-hit balls are on the ground.
Not enough people are talking about how excellent this Boston offense has been. On the season, Boston ranks fourth in runs scored and second in wOBA, but over the last 30 days, they have led the league in wRC+ and wOBA by a pretty wide margin.
Astros vs Red Sox Predictions, Betting Analysis
I make this pitching matchup pretty much a wash. Both have been consistently good all season, but likely due for some slight negative regression. Houck holds a 3.96 ERA, and Blanco has a 3.94 xERA. If anything, I give a slight edge to Houck based on his dominant ability to keep the ball on the ground. Both can get hit hard sometimes, but I’d rather it be into the dirt.
However, I give a big advantage at the plate to the Red Sox right now. This team has been locked in offensively better than any team and baseball. Over the last month, Boston leads the league in wOBA and wRC+, has scored the most runs, and is hitting .300 as a team.
Houston ranks 27th in wOBA, and only three teams have a lower wRC+ over that stretch. Nobody in this lineup is producing outside of Alvarez, Altuve, Bregman, and Yanier Diaz.
The gap between these offenses only widens when adjusted for their splits. Boston has mashed right-handed pitching this season. They have a .388 wOBA and 148 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers over the last 30 days.
To put that in perspective, Freddie Freeman has a 148 wRC+ this season, while Bryce Harper has a 145 wRC+. That essentially means that against right-handed pitchers, the Red Sox as a team produce like a lineup of Freddie Freemans.
Boston can roll out seven left-handed bats against a righty, with their two best hitters, Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran, ranking second and 11th in the league in OPS against right-handed pitchers this season.
Pick: Red Sox ML (-130, bet365)
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Moneyline
The Red Sox are 33-22 as a favorite this year. With Houck on the mound and this offense facing a right-handed pitcher, I like Boston to get it done as the short home favorite.
Run Line (Spread)
Houston still has enough top-end talent in the lineup to keep it close. Blanco has outperformed his advanced metrics this year and is having a great season. This should be a competitive game until the end.
Over/Under
I lean over, but not enough to bet it. Both starting pitchers are due for slight negative regression, with an xERA nearly a run higher than their current ERAs. Boston's offense has been the best in the league over the last month, and Houston still has a ton of talent at the top of its order with Alvarez and Altuve. The offenses could take over if both pitchers continue to get hit hard.
