The Houston Astros (75-64) attempt to avoid getting swept by the Cincinnati Reds (67-73) on Thursday afternoon at Great American Ball Park. First pitch for this MLB interleague finale is set for 1:10 p.m. ET on MLB Network.
Rhett Lowder is one of the Reds’ top prospects for a reason. The 22-year-old first-round draft pick flew through the Reds’ farm system and logged a great first appearance against the Milwaukee Brewers. On Thursday, he'll be facing Hunter Brown and the Astros. Brown has been one of the most reliable starters for the Astros as he's limited hard contact and racked up strikeouts.
However, the Reds have hit righties about as well as the Astros, and Cincinnati has a few arms in the bullpen who can hold their own. As a result, the Reds moneyline holds value. So, let's dive into my Astros vs Reds predictions, picks and the latest odds for Thursday, September 5.
Astros-Reds Prediction
- Astros-Reds Picks: Reds Moneyline (+140 | Play to +115)
My Astros-Reds best bet is on the Reds moneyline, where I see value at +140. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-160 | 9 -120o / +100u | -1.5 -105 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+135 | 9 -120o / +100u | +1.5 -115 |
- Astros-Reds Moneyline: Astros -160 | Reds +135
- Astros-Reds Total: Over/Under 9 (-120o / +100u)
- Astros-Reds Spread: Astros -1.5 (-105) | Reds +1.5 (-115)
Projected Starting Pitchers for Astros-Reds
| Hunter Brown RHP | Stat | Rhett Lowder RHP |
|---|---|---|
| 11-7 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 2.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 3.55/3.33 | ERA /xERA | 2.25/3.02 |
| 3.69/3.57 | FIP / xFIP | 3.18/4.32 |
| 1.29 | WHIP | 1.50 |
| 16.4% | K-BB% | 11.1% |
| 48.1% | GB% | 42.9% |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 101 | Location+ | 100 |
Astros-Reds Preview, Prediction
Astros Betting Preview: Can Hunter Brown Limit Walks?
Brown owns a 3.55 ERA and a 3.33 xERA. His average exit velocity is under 86 mph and he has an above average ground-ball and hard-hit rates. He has a 25.2% strikeout rate, but his walk rate has loomed just under 9%. He has been a stalwart in the past month, but Cincinnati can draw walks and hit righties, especially lately.
Houston’s wRC+ in the past month of off righties is 121 with a 7.6% walk rate and a 19.7% strikeout rate. The Astros have seven bats with an xwOBA above .320. This lineup can be potent, and Lowder could have his hands full in his second big-league start. He has displayed enough to keep the Reds in this one, though.
The Houston relief staff has a 3.88 xFIP with a 28% strikeout rate and a 9.9% walk rate. Like Brown, they could walk the entire Reds’ lineup. Still, most of Houston's relievers are under the 4.00 xFIP mark. However, if the Reds can be patient with Brown, as they been recently against righties, they can get to the bullpen more quickly.
Reds Betting Preview: Back the Bats
Lowder has a 2.25 ERA and a 3.02 xERA after just one start (four innings). He held Milwaukee to an average exit velocity of 86 mph and struck out six. In the minors, he held a 3.64 ERA and racked up 113 strikeouts versus just 24 walks. He also held high ground-ball rates at each minor league stop.
The Reds have a 104 wRC+ off of righties in the past month. Their walk rate is over 8% with a 22.9% strikeout rate. Cincinnati does have six bats eclipsing a .320 xwOBA and three more over .300. Simply put, this lineup can match, or even out-produce, the Astros when facing with a righty. Brown is a tall task, but Cincinnati should be able to handle him.
Lowder can hold his own and has impressive metrics. Cincinnati's bullpen has a 4.21 xFIP, a 22.5% strikeout rate and a 7.5% walk rate over the past month. They may not get as many batters to swing-and-miss, but they still have four arms under a 4.00 xFIP. Basically, if Lowder can get the Reds through five, the bullpen should be able to handle the rest of the workload.
Astros-Reds Prediction: Moneyline Betting Analysis
Lowder is underappreciated. He can limit walks, keep the ball on the ground, miss bats and keep the hard contact to a minimum. The Reds have hit right-handers, like Brown, well, even though he has had a good string of starts. Yes, Houston’s relief staff could be a bit stronger, but they will put more runners on via the walk.
Take the Reds as home underdogs as Lowder and the Reds' bats should keep this team in the game.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds +140 to +115
Moneyline
I'm betting the Reds moneyline against the Astros
Run Line (Spread)
I'll pass on betting the run line in this matchup.
Over/Under
The Astros vs. Reds over/under is set at nine. I'm going to pass on this one.
Astros-Reds Betting Trends
- 66% of the bets and 69% of the money are on the Astros on the moneyline.
- 86% of the bets and 85% of the money are on the over.
- 86% of the bets and 85% of the money are on the Astros to cover the run line.
Astros Betting Trends
- Reds are 39-27 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Reds' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 31 of Reds' 73 last games at home
Reds Betting Trends
- Astros are 35-35 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Astros' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 28 of Astros' 68 last games at home
Astros-Reds Weather Forecast
