Last season, the road to the World Series in the American League went through the Lone Star State. The road team won all seven games of the ALCS as the Texas Rangers ousted the rival Houston Astros and eventually captured the first World Series title in franchise history.
One season later: the Astros are still in the mix for a seventh AL West title in eight seasons, while the Rangers need a massive run for an opportunity at a World Series repeat.
The good news for the Astros heading into Monday's series opener in Arlington is that they've won five of the last seven meetings at Globe Life Field since the ALCS.
Here's a Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers prediction — plus the latest MLB odds and picks for this Monday night AL West clash.
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +150 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -180 |
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Hunter Brown (HOU) | Stat | LHP Andrew Heaney (TEX) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-7 | W-L | 4-11 |
| 1.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.9 |
| 4.11/3.51 | ERA /xERA | 4.12/4.04 |
| 3.94/3.57 | FIP / xFIP | 3.86/4.28 |
| 1.40 | WHIP | 1.27 |
| 16.4% | K-BB% | 16.1% |
| 47.7% | GB% | 33.9% |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 83 |
| 101 | Location+ | 101 |
Kevin Rogers' Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Preview
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Bounce-Back Spot for 'Stros?
The Astros' offense was grounded in the final two losses to the Rays this past weekend, scoring a total of one run. Houston not only lost the series to Tampa Bay but fell to 2-5 in the past seven games since picking up consecutive victories over the Dodgers last month.
A nine-game road trip kicks off in Arlington. That trip extends to Boston and Tampa Bay as the Astros enter Monday one game behind the Mariners for first place in the AL West.
Houston was limited to eight hits in its last two games following a nine-hit output in Friday's series-opening win over Tampa Bay.
15 of the last 21 games for the Astros have been played at home, and Houston split its six road games, both against division foes Seattle and Oakland.
Hunter Brown has gone through an incredible roller-coaster ride this season as Houston began 2-10 in the right-hander's first 12 outings. The biggest lowlight for Brown was getting lit up for 11 hits and nine runs in the first inning at Kansas City in mid-April, but the Astros are 8-2 in his past 10 starts.
Brown has yielded one earned run or less in seven of his previous 10 trips to the hill, although he allowed five runs in a 6-2 home loss to the Pirates last Tuesday as a near -200 favorite.
In two starts against the Rangers this season, Brown has split both outings by winning at home and losing on the road. Brown's awful start to 2024 included him yielding five runs in three innings at Globe Life Field in a 10-2 blowout loss.
However, he rebounded prior to the All-Star break with a 6-3 home victory over Texas as he struck out five in six innings of work.
Texas Rangers Betting Preview: Heaney at Home
Since sweeping the awful White Sox at home in late July, the Rangers have dropped three consecutive series, including losing two of three this past weekend to the Red Sox at home.
Texas is in the midst of nine consecutive overs, despite scoring three runs or less five times during this span. The pitching has let down the defending world champions of late as they've allowed six runs or more seven times during this 2-7 slump.
The Rangers led through three innings in the two losses to Boston, but somehow overcame a 3-0 deficit in the lone win on Saturday.
However, Texas has allowed 10 hits or more in four straight games, and the Rangers will turn to their coldest pitcher to turn things around.
Andrew Heaney has given up 10 runs in his last two starts, while tossing 9.1 innings against the Blue Jays and Cardinals on the road. Heaney wasn't great at Toronto, but he left the game with a 5-4 lead before the Jays rallied for a walk-off win.
However, Heaney gave up three early runs in a 10-1 defeat at St. Louis his last time out, as the Rangers fell to 1-5 in his past six road outings.
Pitching at home has actually worked out for Heaney, who didn't allow a run against the Orioles and Rays in his previous two starts in Arlington.
Heaney's home WHIP sits at 1.07, compared to 1.41 on the road, while the home OBP is at .275 as opposed to .323 on the road.
In three starts against the Astros this season, Heaney has yet to record a victory while pitching five innings just once.
Astros vs Rangers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Although the Rangers have struggled offensively of late, this is a huge series for Texas to make up ground in the wild card race with a good performance.
Considering Framber Valdez is on deck on Tuesday for Houston — which is 7-0 in his last seven starts — Texas needs to take advantage tonight.
Pick: Rangers -105 (Play to -110)
Moneyline
Heaney has been excellent at home recently as Texas is 4-1 in his past five starts in Arlington. The Astros slipped up in their last road series opener at Oakland, which snapped a three-game winning streak in away Game 1s.
Also, the Rangers have captured two of three series openers against the Astros this season, as the one loss came against Brown before the All-Star break.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing Texas on the run line is a heavy price to pay at around -170. The Rangers have lost by one run only once in the past 13 defeats.
On the flip side, the past three victories for the Astros have come by one run apiece, so this is a likely pass on both sides.
Over/Under
The Rangers have been on an incredible over run of late, while the Astros are currently on a 4-1 under run. The over is 6-4 in the 10 matchups between these teams this season, as the last two matchups in Houston each easily finished under the total.
