Once again, New YorkMets ace Jacob deGrom is making a mockery of the betting markets.
Tonight in Colorado, the Mets are listed as a -450 favorite with deGrom on the mound against Ryan Feltner, a 25th-round pick in the 2015 MLB Draft.
If the Mets close higher than -430 on the moneyline tonight, they will be the biggest betting favorite in Major League Baseball since September 25th, 2019. That day, the New York Mets as -468 favorites beat the Marlins, 10-3 … a game also started by deGrom.
Since 2005, only FOUR starting pitchers have closed as a favorite of -450 or greater in any MLB game:
- Jacob deGrom (twice)
- Gerrit Cole (twice)
- Clayton Kershaw (once)
- Justin Verlander (three times)
Dating back to September of 2019, deGrom has now been listed as the betting favorite in 36 consecutive starts (including tonight), with the Mets going 25-10 (71.4%) in those games.
When attempting to compare deGrom's betting acumen to other Mets hurlers, the markets respect for deGrom is second-to-none.
Since 2005, the Mets have had 96 different starting pitchers take the mound. In that span, only deGrom has started a game for New York as a favorite of -400 or greater .. and he has now done that twice.
When it comes to betting tonight's game, look no further than how huge MLB favorites perform in Bet Labs — an article written earlier today by PJ Walsh:
"There have been just 23 instances of an MLB team closing as a favorite of -400 or larger dating back to the 2005 season.
These favorites have won 17 of those 23 games for a 73.9% win rate, but the price of these teams has actually resulted in a loss of 2.06 units">units.
That means a bettor wagering $100 on each favorite of -400 or larger since 2005 has lost $206, despite that 73.9% win rate."
The other deGrom trend that has stood the test of time is the under in the first five innings in his home starts. In his career, the first five under is 65-35-5 (65%) in his home starts. A $100 bettor would be up $2,384, a 22.7% return on investment.
So far in 2022, deGrom has yet to allow an earned run in the first five innings at home. New York has outscored its opponents 6-0.
Of the 1,192 pitchers to make an MLB start since 2005, deGrom is the most profitable starter for the first five innings under at home by a wide margin.
