After losing their third straight game, the New York Jets hit the trade market and brought in superstar wide receiver Davante Adams from the Las Vegas Raiders. It’s a last-ditch effort to save a season that is sliding away quickly — we'll see how it plays out with yet another Jets primetime game on the horizon.
This time, it’s Sunday Night Football on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers. We'll build out Jets vs. Steelers parlay backing New York.
While the Steelers are 4-2, head coach Mike Tomlin is reportedly going to switch up his starting quarterback and go with Russell Wilson over Justin Fields. Ian Rapoport reports that Wilson will get the bulk of snaps, but that Fields could also play as well.
Here’s my Jets vs. Steelers SGP for Sunday Night Football.
Jets vs. Steelers Parlay
- Jets Moneyline
- Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown
- Tyler Conklin 25+ Receiving Yards
Parlay Odds: +700 (bet365)
Jets Moneyline
We have a desperate Jets team facing an overrated Steelers team, and it feels like everything is aligning for a New York bounce-back win.
Adams will provide a huge boost to an offense that has been dysfunctional in the opening months. Aaron Rodgers has done yeoman's work in making Allen Lazard look like a viable threat — adding the familiarity of Adams will help add another level here.
The Steelers are 15th in DVOA against the pass and while they’re top three against the WR1s, they’re 19th to the WR2s and 28th to the WR3s. We should be able to see either Adams or Garrett Wilson absolutely tear up the Pittsburgh secondary and move the field down with ease. Not to mention Breece Hall is a great receiving back — Pittsburgh is 30th in DVOA to the pass vs. RBs.
On the other end of the field, as Chris Raybon broke down on Green Dot Daily, the Steelers' offensive line has been ravaged by injuries. They are down two linemen and now face a Jets defense that ranks fifth in pressure rate.
It doesn't matter who the Steelers start at quarterback. Either will be under pressure all night and be forced into some quick and potential turnover-worthy plays.
The Steelers' wins are also a bit suspect. They beat the Falcons in Kirk Cousins’ first start coming off a torn Achilles, Bo Nix in his second pro game, the Chargers with a hobbled Justin Herbert and a borderline-NFL team in the Raiders. Now, they face arguably the best offense they’ve seen all season in Rodgers and the Jets.
Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown
There were a lot of negatives from the Jets’ loss to the Buffalo Bills. It wasn’t just the kicking woes or inability to stop the run. Mike Williams was a detriment on the outside, and the Jets in general looked horrific in the red zone.
Enter Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target.
It’s no secret how dominant a touchdown scorer Adams is. From 2016 through his first year with the Raiders in 2022, Adams finished with double-digit touchdowns in 6-of-7 seasons.
Since then, he’s been mired down by brutal quarterback play, begging for a chance to thrive in a more functional offense. He will get that this weekend alongside Garrett Wilson and his old teammate Lazard. Not to mention the threats of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen out of the backfield.
I expect the Jets to come out swinging in this one, and as we near the end zone, Rodgers will be looking for his favorite target.
We’ve seen him heavily rely on Lazard down the stretch and the same will happen for Adams.
Tyler Conklin 25+ Receiving Yards
It was a relatively quiet Monday for Tyler Conklin, but he’s quickly become a reliable check-down option for Aaron Rodgers. Prior to the last game, Conklin had 6+ targets in three straight. As the Jets offense adds more weapons and opposing defenses begin to focus on Wilson and Adams, etc., there should be plenty of opportunities for Conklin to take advantage of and go unnoticed.
Conklin’s over is also one of our biggest edges right now. Sean Koerner projects the tight end with a mean of 27 receiving yards, and the matchup is a plus for Conklin. He now faces a Steelers defense that is 22nd in DVOA to the tight end position.
Last week, Brock Bowers finished with 71 receiving yards and even Harrison Bryant added 24. As a whole, tight ends average 5.7 receptions for 48 yards per game against Pittsburgh. While Jeremy Ruckert should see some action, Conklin is the clear No. 1 TE in this offense.
Conklin returned to practice in full ahead of this Sunday night bout and I am willing to play into the upside he has in this offense. Taking an ALT line also gets us near 10-1 on the SGP payout.
