Nationals vs. Mets Odds
| Nationals Odds | +170 |
| Mets Odds | -210 |
| Total | 9 (-115 / -105) |
| Date | Thursday, July 27 |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
*Odds via BetMGM as of Thursday afternoon.
The New York Mets begin a four-game series with the Washington Nationals on Thursday night at Citi Field.
Josiah Gray will be on the bump for the Nationals, while Kodai Senga will start for the Mets.
Our algorithm has identified an edge on a Gray player prop at BetMGM. The prognostication is expecting Gray to have his way against the Mets.
It's a bet on the over.
Our models consider quantitative and qualitative factors for every angle of this game — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more — to come up with a fair value line for every MLB player prop on the market.
Josiah Gray Player Prop Prediction, Projection
Gray has pitched admirably this season for the Nationals, who sit in last place in the NL East.
He's made 20 starts for the Nats this season and is 7-8 with a 3.45 ERA. Gray's ERA is almost two runs lower than his ERA in his first three seasons in the MLB.
BetMGM has set the total for over 4.5 strikeouts at +110, while the under is -145. That's the best price on the under in the market.
The model predicts Gray will have exactly five strikeouts tonight, good enough for about a 9% betting edge on the over.
Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same size unit for each individual bet.
Pick: Josiah Gray Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)
