The Kansas City Royals head down south to take on the Atlanta Braves to close out their regular season. Tonight’s game is set to kick off the final three-game weekend series of the year, provided that there’s no interruptions from Hurricane Helene.
Kansas City is currently embroiled in a battle for the last wild card spot in the American League. After winning three games in a row while Minnesota lost last night, their magic number now sits at one. The Royals have a three-game lead in the race over the Twins and Mariners with just three games remaining on each of their schedules.
Atlanta is in a wild card battle of its own, as the Braves sit one game back of both the Mets and the Padres for the final two NL wild card slots. The Braves and Mets were supposed to face off earlier this week but the hurricane postponed these two games to Monday if necessary.
The Braves are heavy home favorites tonight at -205 in a game with an over/under of 7.5 runs. Let’s take a look at my Royals vs Braves prediction and best bet for Friday night.
Royals vs Braves Prediction
- Royals vs Braves pick: Braves F5 -0.5 (-125 | Bet to -135)
My Royals vs Braves best bet is Atlanta on the F5 moneyline, where I see value at -125. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Royals vs Braves Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 7.5 -102o / -118u | +154 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 7.5 -102o / -118u | -185 |
Royals vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
| Brady Singer (RHP) | Stat | Max Fried (LHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-12 | W-L | 10-10 |
| 2.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.1 |
| 3.73 / 4.62 | ERA /xERA | 3.42 / 3.73 |
| 3.89 / 3.61 | FIP / xFIP | 3.41 / 3.35 |
| 1.28 | WHIP | 1.20 |
| 15.5% | K-BB% | 14.9% |
| 46.8% | GB% | 59.3% |
| 84 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 99 | Location+ | 98 |
Cody Goggin’s Royals vs Braves Preview
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview: A Declining Offense
Brady Singer gets the start for Kansas City tonight. The 28-year old has thrown a career high 173 2⁄3 innings this season with a 3.73 ERA, 4.62 xERA, and a 3.87 SIERA. Singer has 165 strikeouts this season with a strikeout rate ranking in the 45th percentile among qualified pitchers.
Singer ranks in the 67th percentile in walk rate as he has a 99 Location+ compared to a Stuff+ of just 84. Singer ranks in the 25th percentile in hard-hit rate, but the 48th percentile in barrel rate allowed and 51st percentile in average exit velocity allowed. His ground-ball rate of 48% ranks in the 79th percentile with his heavy sinker/slider usage.
Kansas City ranks 20th in wRC+ this season and 14th in wOBA. The Royals are 12th in SLG, 18th in OBP, and 16th in ISO this year. They have the second-lowest strikeout rate in the league but also walk at the third-lowest rate.
The Royals rank eighth in hard-hit rate, 19th in barrel rate, and fourth in average exit velocity. They have the seventh-lowest ground ball rate but the fifth-highest fly ball rate. Hitting left-handed pitching has been a struggle for the Royals this season, as they rank just 25th in wRC+ against lefties with a mark of 87.
Over the last 30 days, this has been the worst offense in the league, headlined by a wRC+ of just 63, 37% below league average and 10% worse than the historically inept Chicago White Sox. They also rank 30th in wOBA, SLG, and OBP over that time period.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Braves' Bats Are Hot
Max Fried has an impressive 3.42 ERA and 3.73 xERA this year. This is a bit worse than the last few seasons, but he has still been a heavily reliable pitcher for Atlanta this year.
Fried has a 49th percentile strikeout rate and 48th percentile walk rate this year. Where he really excels is in his ability to limit hard contact, as he ranks in the 82nd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, 88th percentile in barrel rate allowed, and 96th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. Fried is a ground-ball specialist, with a 96th percentile ground-ball rate.
Atlanta’s offense has a wRC+ of 100 this season, right at league average. They rank 12th in wOBA, 10th in SLG, 16th in OBP, and fifth in ISO this season. They have the 10th-highest strikeout rate and walk at a rate just below league average.
Atlanta has hit the ball harder than just about anyone this season. They rank first in hard-hit rate, second in barrel rate, and second in exit velocity. They also have the eighth-lowest ground ball rate, which should help them against Singer tonight.
Over the last 30 days, this Atlanta offense has caught fire, ranking 10th in wRC+, eighth in wOBA, sixth in SLG, and fourth in ISO.
Royals vs Braves Prediction, Betting Analysis
For two teams with similar records, this line seems high in favor of the Braves. However, the Royals’ offense has been miserable for the last month and they have struggled against left-handed pitching all season. Their high fly-ball rate may help them against Fried, but I’m going to trust Fried to take care of business against this faltering unit.
On the other side, Atlanta’s offense has been trending upward and they hit the ball extremely hard. They also don’t hit the ball on the ground, which is a key for facing Singer. I think Atlanta’s offense is set up to have a good night against the Royals’ right-hander tonight.
I think the full game moneyline on the Braves is a bit too steep for my liking, so I’ll instead focus on the F5 run line with the Braves -0.5. Atlanta is just -125 on this run line but I would have this closer to -145, so I do see value at this current number and would bet it all the way up to -135.
Pick: Braves F5 -0.5 (-125 | Bet to -135)
Moneyline
Atlanta is 43-33 straight up at home this season and 73-53 on the moneyline as the favorite. Kansas City has been much better at home, as they are 40-38 straight up on the road.
If I had to play a side in this game, it would be the Braves, as I don’t want to be backing this struggling Kansas City offense. However, I don’t see a ton of value in laying a big number with Atlanta on the moneyline in this game.
Run Line (Spread)
Atlanta has not been a great team to bet on ATS at home this season. They are 33-43 ATS at home compared to 40–41 on the road. The Royals are 42-36 on the road this season ATS.
At +114, I would lean towards the Braves -1.5 on the full game run line. Their offense has been playing much better than Kansas City’s as of late and they do have the advantage in this pitching matchup as well. There is a chance Atlanta can get this done by multiple runs tonight.
Over/Under
Truist Park has been great for under bettors this season, as unders are 49-24-3 in Braves home games and 90-57-10 in Braves games overall. The Royals have also been a road unders team at 43-31-4 to the under.
I don’t have a play one way or the other on the total tonight. Atlanta’s offense has a chance of popping off and pushing this total towards the over, but I don’t know what to expect from the Royals’ offense overall to give me a lean on this to either side.
Royals vs Braves Betting Trends
- 92% of the bets and 99% of the money is on the Braves.
- 84% of tickets and 85% of the money is on the over.
Royals Betting Trends
- Royals are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Royals are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Royals are 42-36 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Royals' last 5 games
Braves Betting Trends
- Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
- Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 24 of Braves' 76 last games at home
Royals vs Braves Weather
