Sunday marks the final day of the Major League Baseball regular season for most teams, but not for the Atlanta Braves, who enter the day in possession of the second NL wild-card spot, one game ahead of both the New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks. The Braves and Mets, of course, are scheduled to play a Monday doubleheader to settle the final wild-card standings once and for all.
Atlanta's opposition on Sunday, the Kansas City Royals, have already clinched an AL wild-card spot. This contest isn't totally worthless for them, as whether they'll be the fifth or sixth seed is still up in the air.
I preview this interleague series finale and offer my Royals vs Braves prediction for September 29 below.
Royals vs Braves Prediction
- Royals vs Braves pick:Braves Moneyline/Run Line (-1.5)
Royals vs Braves Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+205 | 8 -118 / -102 | +1.5 -102 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-250 | 8 -118 / -102 | -1.5 -118 |
Royals vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Alec Marsh (KC) | Stat | RHP Charlie Morton (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-9 | W-L | 8-9 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 4.65 / 5.07 | ERA /xERA | 4.08 / 4.43 |
| 4.29 / 4.17 | FIP / xFIP | 4.33 / 3.96 |
| 1.27 | WHIP | 1.36 |
| 15.6% | K-BB% | 14.8% |
| 37.6% | GB% | 45.9% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 99 | Location+ | 97 |
Sean Paul's Royals vs Braves Preview for Sunday
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview: Royals Look Ahead to Wild Card Round
I was really curious to see how Royals manager Matt Quatraro would handle these weekend games with a playoff berth already in hand.
The first-time playoff manager is playing it safe. He pulled Seth Lugo from Saturday's start after just two innings, which probably serves as his regularly scheduled bullpen. The Royals had tabbed Cole Ragans as their Sunday starter before the series, but they are saving their ace for the Wild Card Round.
Alec Marsh is getting the ball in Kansas City's regular-season finale. He last pitched on September 18, so he'll be plenty rested for this spot start.
Marsh enters Sunday with a 4.65 ERA and 4.29 FIP in 124 innings — with 24 starts and one relief outing. The right-hander chopped his ERA down by more than a run and FIP by more than a run and a half compared to his 2023 rookie season.
The biggest difference for Marsh is pretty cut and dry — throwing strikes. His BB/9 sat at an ugly 4.58 in his rookie year, and it is 2.56 in his sophomore year.
The Royals enter Sunday in the third wild-card spot and one game behind the Detroit Tigers, who are playing the woeful Chicago White Sox. A Tigers win and/or a Royals loss means Detroit will play the Baltimore Orioles in the Wild Card Round; a Royals win and Tigers loss pushes Kansas City to the fifth seed and a playoff matchup with Baltimore.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Braves Suddenly Surging
Simply put, the Braves just need to keep on winning games — a task they've taken on well as victors of five straight. This little run has propelled them to the second NL wild-card spot with both the Mets and Diamondbacks floundering hard in the final week.
Brian Snitker took a very long time to announce a starting pitcher, but he mentioned Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach and Charlie Morton as potential options, and ultimately decided to go with Morton.
The good news? One of the Braves' key missing cogs returned a few weeks ago. That is Ozzie Albies, who provides a steadying presence at the top of Atlanta's order.
So, what’s changed offensively for the suddenly surging Braves?
Two of their best players — Matt Olson, who looked lost for half of the year, and outfielder Michael Harris II, who's dealt with multiple injuries — have been on an absolute tear. Although Austin Riley and Ronald Acuna Jr. are done for the season, this lineup featuring the likes of Harris-Albies-Olson-Marcell Ozuna-Jorge Soler — plus Sale, Max Fried and Reynaldo Lopez on the hill — is good enough to contend for a playoff series win — maybe even two.
Royals vs Braves Prediction, Betting Analysis
If you've read any of my recent game previews, then you know I firmly believe in "motivation factor" in games like this.
The Royals really have nothing to play for, while the Braves need a win to feel decent about their position entering Monday's doubleheader. It's pretty tough to back away from Atlanta here.
Pick: Braves Moneyline/Run Line (-1.5)
Moneyline
Pick: Braves Moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'd lean with the Braves on the run line here. I don't think the Royals want to throw any pitchers of importance here, so if Atlanta gets up early, it could be a blowout. They Braves are 3-2 in their last five games against the spread.
Lean: Braves run line (-1.5)
Over/Under
I don't have an under play here. Both teams were very heavy on the under of late, but I don't feel comfortable enough picking a total here.
Royals vs Braves Betting Trends
Royals Betting Trends
- The Royals have lost seven of their last ten games
- The Royals are 40-40 in road games
- The Royals are 1-4 to the under in their last five games
- The Royals are 3-2 against the spread in their last five games
Braves Betting Trends
- The Braves have won five straight games and are 7-3 in their last 10
- The Braves are 3-2 against the spread in their last five games
- The Braves are 0-3-2 to the under in their last five games
- The Braves are 45-33 at home this year
Royals vs Braves Weather
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