The fifth-seed Kansas City Royals take on the fourth-seed Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday at Camden Yards for the first game of their AL Wild Card Series. First pitch is set for 4:08 p.m. ET and can be watched on ESPN2 or streamed on FUBO and MLB.TV. Find my AL Wild Card preview and Royals vs Orioles prediction, pick and Game 1 best bet below.
Royals vs Orioles odds for Tuesday have the Orioles as -145 moneyline favorites and the Royals +122 underdogs. The over/under is set at 7 total runs (+105o / -125u). The Royals are -190 to cover the spread (+1.5) and the Orioles are +158 to cover their run line (-1.5).
Two aces get the ball in this AL Wild Card Game 1. The Royals hand the ball to left-hander Cole Ragans, while the Orioles counter with the prize of their offseason, former CY Young Award winner Corbin Burnes. The Royals also added a big bat to their lineup, as first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino is on their Wild Card roster after missing a chunk of the season with a broken right thumb.
Royals-Orioles Prediction
- Royals vs Orioles pick: Royals Moneyline (+136 | Play to +130)
My Orioles vs Royals best bet is on the Royals moneyline, where I see value at +136. The best line is available at DraftKings — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles Odds, Predictions
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+130 | 6.5 -125o / +105u | +1.5 -190 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-155 | 6.5 -125o / +105u | -1.5 +155 |
- Royals vs Orioles Moneyline: Royals +130, Orioles -155
- Royals vs Orioles Over/Under: 6.5 (-125o / +105u)
- Royals vs Orioles Run Line: Royals +1.5 (-190), Orioles -1.5 (+155)
Game 1 Probable Starting Pitchers for Royals-Orioles
| LHP Cole Ragans (KC) | Stat | RHP Corbin Burnes (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-9 | W-L | 15.9 |
| 1.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.7 |
| 3.14/3.27 | ERA /xERA | 2.92/3.27 |
| 2.99/3.46 | FIP / xFIP | 3.55/3.55 |
| 1.14 | WHIP | 1.10 |
| 20.5% | K-BB% | 17.0% |
| 40.7% | GB% | 48.2% |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 120 |
| 100 | Location+ | 103 |
Royals vs Orioles Wild Card Game 1 Preview Prediction
Royals Betting Preview: Cole Ragans Among Baseball's Best
Cole Ragans will take the mound for the Royals in their first playoff games since 2015. Ragans has been dominant all season, posting a 3.27 xERA because of how effective he's been with his fastball and changeup.
His fastball has incredible Stuff+ numbers because of its and movement. The pitch has over 17 inches of induced vertical break and 12 inches of run, while averaging well over 95 mph. His changeup is even better, as it has over a 48% whiff rate and opposing hitters only have a .251 xwOBA against it.
The other thing that makes Ragans so good is how he dominates right-handed hitters.
(image via Baseball Savant)
Against right handed hitter this season, he is only allowing a .265 wOBA and has an 11.44 K/9 rate.
The Royals offense has sputtered over the second half of the season with a 95 wRC+. Bobby Witt has been incredible, putting up MVP-type numbers all season, but he can't be the only one to carry this offense. Losing Vinnie Pasquantino to a season-ending injury really hurt this lineup because he was one of only three hitters with a wRC+ over 100 since the All-Star Break.
This isn't the best of matchups for the Royals because they haven't been very good against right-handed cutters, ranking inside the bottom five of baseball in terms of xwOBA.
The Royals bullpen was terrible for the first half of the season and had some of the worst pitch modeling metrics in baseball. All of that changed at the deadline when they brought over Lucas Erceg from the Athletics. Since the All-Star Break, they have the 14th-best xFIP and are 10th in terms of Pitching+.
Orioles Betting Preview: Corbin Burnes — Trouble Under the Hood?
Corbin Burnes had a really good first season with the Orioles (2.73 xERA), but something interesting has been happening with him. He's not generating as many swings and misses as he used to and his strikeout rate is down 12.5% from his peak in 2021. What he's done is started to throw his cutter up in the zone more often, but also thrown the pitch at a lesser rate.
Last season, he threw his cutter around 55% of the time. This season, that's down to 45%. That means he's throwing his slider and curveball more often, but his curveball has actually been less effective as the xwOBA allowed on it is up 82 points and the whiff rate is down 12%. He faced the Royals twice early in the season and wasn't that effective, allowing 13 hits and five earned runs in those two starts.
There are some concerning things with Orioles lineup in this game. Their overall numbers against left-handed pitching look good, but when you dig a bit deeper, it starts to get worse.
They are one of the better lineups against left-handed fastballs, but when they have to face left-handed pitchers who throw 95 mph or faster, only Ryan Mountcastle and Anthony Santander have above a .300 xwOBA. Then, when you look at how the Orioles faired against left-handed changeups, it's even worse as Baltimore has a .284 xwOBA against left-handed changeups.
The Orioles bullpen was good for the first half of the season, but has been closer to league average since the All-Star Break. Over the second half of the season, their ERA climbed up to 4.81, and over the past 30 days their ERA has been above five.
Royals vs Orioles Prediction & Moneyline Analysis
This isn't a good matchup for either offense and with both pitchers having pretty much identical metrics, I think this game is going to come down to the bullpens, defense and base running. From an overall talent perspective, the Orioles have the better bullpen, but the Royals over the past 30 days have the third-best xFIP in baseball and their pitch-modeling metrics are well above average.
The Royals were also the number one defense in baseball this season in outs above average and were top 10 in both base running and sprint speed. Their ability on the bases is going to be a massive advantage because Adley Rutschman allowed the fifth-most stolen bases in baseball (82) and only threw out 19 of the 103 runners who tried to steal on him.
The Orioles were a below-average defense this year, ranking 21st in defensive runs saved and were league average at base running. So, the Royals will have an edge in those two aspects.
The Orioles may have won 91 games, but only 38 of those wins came against teams with a winning record.
I think this line is a tad too high for Baltimore. I have the Royals projected at +122, so I like the value on the Kansas City at +136.
Pick: Royals Moneyline (+136 via DraftKings)
Moneyline
I'm betting the Royals moneyline in this game.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm passing on the run line in this game.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the Royals vs. Orioles over/under.
Royals-Orioles Betting Trends
Royals Betting Trends
Royals are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Royals are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Royals are 33-48 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of the Royals' last 5 games
Orioles Betting Trends
Orioles are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Orioles are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of the Orioles' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 34 of the Orioles' 81 last games at home
Royals-Orioles Key Injuries
Royals Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| 1B Vinnie Pasquantino | Broken right thumb (activated for Wild Card Series) |
| LHP Will Smith | Back spasms (15-day IL) |
| RHP Chris Stratton | Right forearm (15-day IL) |
Orioles Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| RHP Grayson Rodriguez | Right lat (15-day IL; out for season) |
Royals-Orioles Game 1 Info: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Camden Yards |
| Date: | Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024 |
| Time: | 4:08 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | ESPN2 | FUBO | MLB.TV |
Royals vs Orioles is set to start at 4:08 p.m. ET on Tuesday. The game will air on ESPN2 and can also be streamed on FUBO and MLB.TV.
Royals vs Orioles Weather Forecast
