The Kansas City Royals pulled off the upset over the Baltimore Orioles in Game 1 of their AL Wild Card Series. First pitch for Game 2 on Wednesday at Camden Yards is scheduled for 4:38 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
There wasn't too much offense in Tuesday’s 1-0 thriller — the Royals triumphed, but Wednesday could be a bit different. Zach Eflin will start for the Orioles against Kansas City's Seth Lugo.
I think Baltimore has an edge and will force a decisive Game 3, but first let's get to my Royals vs Orioles predictions for Wednesday, October 2.
Royals vs Orioles Prediction
- Royals vs Orioles pick: Orioles Moneyline (-140 | Play to -160)
My Orioles vs Royals best bet for Game 2 is on the Orioles moneyline, where I see value at -140. The best line is available at DraftKings — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Royals vs Orioles Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 7.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -172 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-142 | 7.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +145 |
Royals vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Seth Lugo (KC) | Stat | RHP Zach Eflin (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 16-9 | W-L | 10-9 |
| 4.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.8 |
| 3.00/3.72 | ERA /xERA | 3.59/3.62 |
| 3.25/3.83 | FIP / xFIP | 3.77/3.81 |
| 1.09 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 15.9% | K-BB% | 16.1% |
| 44.2% | GB% | 42.7% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 101 | Location+ | 107 |
D.J. James’ Royals vs Orioles Preview
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview: Bullpen Could Play Big Role
Lugo has a 3.00 ERA and a 3.72 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 88.5 mph and he has a Hard-Hit Rate in the 47th percentile. His ground-ball rate ranks in the 62nd percentile and he has a walk rate under 6%. Like Eflin, Lugo won't produce many strikeouts, as his strikeout rate is only 21.7%. He had a rocky August and stabilized in September. However, this Baltimore lineup has more in the tank than they displayed on Tuesday.
The Royals had a 75 wRC+, a 9% walk rate and a 23.5% strikeout rate against righties in the final month of the regular season. They have only four bats with a .320+ xwOBA, and Bobby Witt Jr. usually carries the offense.
The Royals’ bullpen had a 3.25 xFIP, a 7.7% walk rate and a 29.4% strikeout rate from September 1 through the end of the regular season.
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Back the Bats
Eflin has a 3.59 ERA and a 3.62 xFIP. His Average Exit Velocity is 88.1 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate is in the 73rd percentile. His ground-ball rate is above average and his strikeout rate may be below 20%, but he's only walking 3.5% of batters.
The O’s lineup is much stronger against righties. In the final month of the regular season, Baltimore held a 109 wRC+, a 9.1% walk rate and a 23.4% strikeout rate against righties. The Orioles have seven active bats on the playoff roster eclipsing a .320 xwOBA, so virtually anyone they put up against Lugo can do damage. Thus, he could be leaving the game early.
In relief, the Orioles have a 3.76 xFIP, a 9.3% walk rate and a 23.9% strikeout rate. Like the Royals, they have multiple relievers who can enter the game upon Eflin’s exit. However, since Eflin rarely issues walks, can keep the ball on the ground and doesn't accrue pitches via the strikeout, he could throw deep into this game.
Royals vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
The differences in these starters is seemingly negligible, but the Orioles have more depth in their lineup. In relief, Baltimore has enough to contend with the Royals.
Since Eflin could end up throwing deeper into this game, the Orioles could be in a better spot than the Royals’ relief staff. In addition, it doesn't hurt to be at home.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-140) | Play to -155
Moneyline
I'm backing Baltimore on the Royals vs. Orioles moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I won't be betting the Royals vs. Orioles run line.
Over/Under
The Royals vs. Orioles over/under is a pass for me.
Royals vs Orioles Weather Forecast
