The Kansas City Royals (7-6) and Cleveland Guardians (6-6) begin a three-game series on Friday, April 11, at Progressive Field. First pitch is set for 6:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FanDuel Sports Kansas City and Guardians TV.
Every game is important, especially in the AL Central. The Guardians are coming off a three-game sweep of the lowly White Sox while the Royals took three of four games from the Twins.
Who has the advantage in the series opener? Find my Royals vs Guardians prediction and pick for Friday below.
Royals vs Guardians Prediction
- Royals vs Guardians pick:Royals Moneyline +125 (play to +110)
My Royals vs Guardians best bet is on the Royals to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Odds, Predictions
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7 +100o / -120u | +105 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 7 +100o / -120u | -125 |
- Royals vs Guardians moneyline: Royals +105, Guardians -125
- Royals vs Guardians total: 7 (+100o / -120u)
- Royals vs Guardians run line: Royals +1.5 (-200), Guardians -1.5 (+165)
- Royals vs Guardians best bet: Royals moneyline
Royals vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
Royals vs Guardians Preview, Predictions
Royals Betting Preview
You can make a compelling argument that Royals southpaw Kris Bubic is the breakout pitching star in MLB. Bubic was a huge lottery ticket for Kansas City, but the front office believed in him enough to make Brady Singer expendable. It’s paid off handsomely, as Bubic has tossed 12 ⅔ scoreless innings with 16 strikeouts.
Bubic has shined in multiple ways, both inducing soft contact (90th percentile in average exit velo) and getting whiffs (79th percentile). The mixture of soft contact and swing and miss typically leads to a pitcher being pretty legit, so I’m all in on the Bubic breakout.
Although Bubic isn't a flamethrower, clocking in at 92 mph on his four-seamer, his breaking ball arsenal is elite. He ranks in the 97th percentile in breaking ball pitch value, and his sweeper is an elite swing-and-miss weapon. That should be an appetizing pitch to Cleveland, which punches out over 23% of the time.
I'm a bit surprised the Royals' offense has a 77 wRC+, which sits 24th in MLB. It just felt like the Royals had the potential to become the clear favorite in the AL Central and the lack of hitting has put a halt to that.
We're 13 games into the year for Kansas City and it is tied for last in the sport with six home runs. Bobby Witt Jr hit 32 home runs last year and had a 168 wRC+ in an MVP-caliber season. This year, Witt Jr has one homer and a 133 wRC+. Yes, that's still awesome, but Witt has to find his MVP form, considering Sal Perez, Michael Massey, and Vinnie Pasquantino boast a wRC+ below 60.
Guardians Betting Preview
Tanner Bibee already got a taste of this Royals unsavory lineup, tossing 5 2/3 scoreless innings with two hits, two walks and two strikeouts. He followed the strong start with a four-inning outing with eight hits, seven runs and FOUR homers against the Angels.
It's probably too early to worry about Bibee, but I can't say I feel good about his production. The two biggest concerning stats are Bibee's declining K/9, which fell from 9.69 to 5.59 and a Stuff+ from 105 to 96.
The Guardians' offense is really a mixed bag, depending on what the top of the order does. In the series finale versus the White Sox, Kyle Manzardo and Steven Kwan went deep and the Guardians scored six runs. In the prior two games, Cleveland won the first two games of the series with just six total hits.
Why is Cleveland so top heavy?
Well, nobody outside of Manzardo, Kwan, Jose Ramirez and Carlos Santana is producing. Each of those four has a wRC+ above 130, led by Ramirez, who's a perennial MVP candidate with a strong 159.
The other six hitters in the lineup are dragging down what could be a very dangerous offense if they hit anywhere near league average. The combination of Daniel Schneemann, Jhonkensy Noel, Lane Thomas and Nolan Jones has been a total disaster in the outfield.
Since a lefty is on the bump, it'll likely be Noel and Thomas in the lineup. Noel enters play with a 6 wRC+, while Lane Thomas has a 20 wRC+.
There's no doubt the top of the Guardians' lineup has the edge over the Royals. However, I'll take the bottom of the Royals' lineup over the bottom of the Guardians' lineup, which is just comparing two lineups struggling mightily.
Royals vs Guardians Lines, Moneyline Pick
I'm all in on Bubic, and I think he'll give the Royals the edge in a low-scoring game.
I'm not fully convinced the Guardians are better than the Royals, so grabbing them at plus money, even on the road, is a strong play. You just don't find pitchers who have peripherals like Bubic suddenly fall off. I still don't think he's priced as a legitimate top-of-the-rotation option.
Meanwhile, Bibee has a FIP sitting over 8.00. I foresee Bibee eventually getting rolling, but I'll be skeptical until he starts missing bats again.
Lastly, the bullpen, many predicted to be the best in MLB, hasn't been quite as dominant as last year. Emmanuel Clase has an ERA over 6, while Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis haven't allowed a run but have walk issues, each posting a BB/9 above 4.9.
Putting that many runners on base will eventually sting the Guardians' bullpen. The Royals will look to get on base and put pressure on the pitchers by stealing bases to atone for the lack of power.
Pick: Royals Moneyline +125 (play to +110)
Moneyline
As I outlined above, I like Bubic and the Royals on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'll not be betting on either side of the run line.
Pick: Pass.
Over/Under
I'm also passing on the game total.
Pick: Pass.
Royals vs Guardians Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio |
| Date: | Friday, April 11 |
| Time: | 6:10 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | Guardians TV / FanDuel Sports Kansas City; MLB.TV |
