Royals vs Twins Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Runline | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +136 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Runline | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -162 |
The American League Central is very much up for grabs with both the Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins sitting within four games of the Guardians for first place in the division.
With only about 40 games left, this series could decide who ends up pushing Cleveland. The Twins will rely on Pablo Lopez for an effective outing, while the Royals will hope Brady Singer's breakout season continues.
The current line sits at the Twins -162 moneyline with a total of 7.5 runs.
Below is my Royals vs. Twins prediction.
Royals vs Twins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Brady Singer (KC) | Stat | RHP Pablo Lopez (MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-7 | W-L | 10-8 |
| 2.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.0 |
| 3.03/4.56 | ERA /xERA | 4.74/3.50 |
| 3.65/3.61 | FIP / xFIP | 3.83/3.32 |
| 1.19 | WHIP | 1.16 |
| 3.3 | K-BB% | 5.0 |
| 48.4 | GB% | 40.3 |
| 85 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 100 | Location+ | 104 |
Sean Paul’s Royals vs Twins Preview
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview: Can Lopez Bounce Back?
After an All-Star season in 2023, Pablo Lopez hasn't met expectations in his second season in Minnesota.
There's no way to put a positive spin on Lopez's rough second season in Minnesota. He enters this start with a 4.78 ERA in 23 starts, a full run higher than last year's ERA. Some viewed Lopez as a Cy Young candidate, which looked very plausible since the AL didn't have a long list of standout pitchers entering the year. However, that'll be a distant memory for Twins fans if he leads them to the AL Central crown.
I still think Lopez could right the ship, given his outstanding metrics (3.83 FIP compared to his high 4s ERA), paired with an outstanding 10 K/9. He still has lights-out stuff, but Lopez needs to lock in and dominate opponents with his elite sweeper.
The Twins lineup showed some cracks in the final two games versus the Guardians, scoring fewer than three runs in a pair of losses. Don't let the rough two-game sample outshine the Twins' outstanding past month at the dish — posting a 111 wRC+, which ranks ninth in MLB since July 15th.
None of the offensive success would have been possible without the emergence of Matt Wallner, who led the team with a pristine 214 wRC+ in that span. Both Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton have been huge cogs in the Twins' sustained success sans Carlos Correa. That'll need to continue.
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview: Plenty of Good Fortune in K.C.
While the metrics favor Lopez, it's the opposite for Royals starter Brady Singer. The former top-five draft selection owns a 3.06 ERA in his breakout campaign but expects some regression with his 4.56 xERA and 3.65 FIP.
Singer's sinker/slider combination accounts for over 81% of his pitches, leading to his elite 49.5 ground-ball rate (81st percentile.) Pitchers who induce ground balls rarely have great peripherals since most ground ball specialists allow hard contact, but if it's on the ground, the sinker ballers will take it.
On the flip side, hitters putting the ball in play often could lead to some BABIP misfortune. All it takes is a few balls finding unvacated holes to potentially derail an outing, putting Singer in danger of his ERA ballooning above the low 3s.
The Royals sport a strong 96-run differential, leading the AL Central, and only behind the Yankees in the American League. That's usually a sign of good things to come.
Much of the good fortune in Kansas City is a byproduct of Bobby Witt Jr.'s extreme success. The Royals boast a 119 wRC+ since July 15th and lead the sport with a minuscule 16.1 strikeout rate.
Witt probably won't catch Aaron Judge in the AL MVP race. However, Witt has entrenched himself in the conversation as the face of the league. He's hitting .459 with a 260 wRC+ in the past month, with a strikeout rate below 10%. We're looking at truly historic numbers in a month from a player who plays the most important infield position.
Six other Royals hitters posted a wRC+ above 105 in the past month, with Vinnie Pasquantino trailing Witt with a 150 wRC+.
Can two of the elite offenses in baseball lead to an over on a smaller total? I think so.
Royals vs Twins Prediction, Betting Analysis
I like the over here for a few reasons — the primary one is simple. The total is just too low. I understand Lopez and Singer both are good pitchers, but we're not seeing prime Jacob deGrom against prime Justin Verlander here.
Lopez has put up below-league-average numbers this year, and Singer is fighting above his weight. Not to mention, the Royals have hit the over in five consecutive games, while the Twins are 2-2-1 in their past five games.
The over is an absolute home run play here for me, considering the Royals recent string of overs and the two offenses posting outstanding numbers over a decently sized sample.
Pick: Over 8 (-110) |
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Moneyline
The public and sharps align on this one, as the Twins currently hold 85% of the bets and 95% of the handle, which ballooned the Twins line from -155 at open, to -162 right now. If this number continues growing, then I might have to take a stab at the Royals ML. There isn't enough of a gap between the two teams to warrant the Twins being heavy favorites.
Run Line (Spread)
Total pass here. I don't see value in either side.
Over/Under
My official play for the game is the over.
