The Minnesota Twins (28-22) host the Kansas City Royals (28-24) on Saturday, May 24, 2025. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MNNT.
Find my Royals vs Twins predictions my preview for this AL Central clash on Saturday below.
Royals vs Twins Predictions, Picks
- Royals vs Twins pick: Under 8 (-110 | Play to -115)
My Royals vs Twins best bet is Under 8. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 7.5 -108o / -112u | +105 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 7.5 -108o / -112u | -125 |
Royals vs Twins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Michael Wacha (KCR) | Stat | RHP Zebby Matthews (MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 1.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 2.86 / 3.73 | ERA /xERA | 12.00 / 5.77 |
| 3.10 / 4.12 | FIP / xFIP | 2.74 / 3.71 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 2.67 |
| 11.4% | K-BB% | 11.8% |
| 43.8% | GB% | 22.2% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 104 | Location+ | 104 |
Tony Sartori’s Royals vs Twins Preview, Prediction
Royals Betting Preview: Wacha Building A Fine Resume
Wacha has quietly been one of the more consistent pitchers in Major League Baseball over the past few years. Since 2022, Wacha is 40-18 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.
He has continued that success in 2025 for the Royals, posting a 2.86 ERA and 1.24 WHIP through his first 10 starts. The right-hander’s underlying metrics suggest more of the same moving forward.
Wacha ranks in the 72nd percentile or higher in average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Furthermore, the former first-round draft pick has dominated Minnesota throughout his career.
Through eight meetings, Wacha is 5-1 with a 3.09 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Looking at it from the other perspective, the current Twins roster has a .219 expected batting average (xBA) through 94 combined plate appearances against him.
Twins Betting Preview: Buy Low on Zebby?
Minnesota has also struggled at the plate this season. Entering this matchup, the Twins rank in the bottom half of the league in runs per game, batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.
The good news for this team is that Zebby Matthews could be a strong buy-low candidate. His first start of the season resulted in a 12.00 ERA and a loss.
However, he did not pitch as poorly as the surface-level stats indicate. For one, the defense behind him played terribly that day.
Despite the inflated ERA, Matthews posted a 2.74 fielding independent pitching (FIP) and 3.71 expected FIP (xFIP), both of which are lower than Wacha’s figures this season.
Poor defense overshadowed the fact that Matthews did not allow a single barreled ball in his three innings of work. In fact, if he qualified, Matthews would rank first in the majors in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Royals vs Twins Prediction, Betting Analysis
Matthews is not nearly as bad as his debut might suggest. Now is the time to buy low, as his analytics point toward a bounce-back performance.
Meanwhile, Wacha has continued to deliver over the past four seasons. With his track record against Minnesota, both starting pitchers look like solid candidates to back in this matchup.
Pick: Under 8 (-110 | Play to -115)
Moneyline
I lean toward Minnesota, but don't want to fade Wacha.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Minnesota to cover, but I am staying away for the same reason listed above.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I'm betting under 8.
