The Minnesota Twins will try to complete a three-game sweep of the rival Kansas City Royals on Wednesday afternoon at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET and the game can be seen on MLB Network.
The Royals-Twins series finale will feature a starting pitching matchup between Cole Ragans and Louie Varland. Ragans is the ace of the Royals’ pitching staff and has proven he can take the ball every five days. The 26-year-old southpaw has a great arsenal, limits hard contact and generates a lot of strikeouts. Varland is a subpar arm, so the Twins’ relief staff could be taking on the brunt of the dirty work.
I preview this AL Central finale below and make a Royals vs Twins predictions and picks on the moneyline.
Royals vs Twins Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8 -118o / -102u | -112 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 8 -118o / -102u | -108 |
Royals vs Twins Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Cole Ragans (KC) | Stat | RHP Louie Varland (MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-7 | W-L | 0-4 |
| 3.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 3.27/3.43 | ERA /xERA | 6.46/5.64 |
| 2.97/3.37 | FIP / xFIP | 5.62/4.24 |
| 1.17 | WHIP | 1.66 |
| 20.6% | K-BB% | 12.8% |
| 40.4% | GB% | 45.7% |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 100 | Location+ | 96 |
D.J. James’s Royals vs Twins Preview
Royals Betting Preview: Breaking Down Ragans
Ragans has a 3.27 ERA against a 3.43 xERA. He has an above average Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate. He is striking out 28.8% of batters with a walk rate of 8.1%. he manufactures plenty of swing-and-miss, which can be key against the Twins, who tend to strike out a lot against lefties. Ragans has been able to throw at least six strong innings in a majority of starts over the last few months, so look for him to assist a relatively weak bullpen.
The Royals are crushing righties in the last month. They have a 126 wRC+, 6.4% walk rate, and 16% strikeout rate. They have eight batters eclipsing a .305 xwOBA and six active batters above .320. Bobby Witt, Jr. is just the exclamation point on an already potent offense against righties.
The Royals’ relief staff has had its issues. They own a 4.26 xFIP in the last month with a 19.8% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate. Getting Lucas Erceg was a nice addition to the back end of the bullpen, and they have two others under a 4.00 xFIP. This should be just enough with Ragans starting the game.
Twins Betting Preview: Breaking Down Varland
Varland has a 6.46 ERA against a 5.64 xERA. He has an above-average ground-ball rate, but the righty has an Average Exit Velocity above 91 MPH with a Hard-Hit Rate in the ninth percentile. He only walks 6.8% of batters but doesn't strike many hitters out and doesn't get many hitters to chase.
The Twins' batting order has been much more successful against righties than lefties. Ragans has only allowed five earned against the Twins this year over 11 innings, so he has been pretty successful. The kicker is that the Twins carry a 62 wRC+, 8.2% walk rate, and 25.4% strikeout rate against lefties since July 14. Of the batters with eight or more plate appearances against southpaws in that timeframe, only four are above a .330 xwOBA. Byron Buxton is day-to-day again, as well.
In relief, the Twins have been better than Kansas City in the last month with a collective 4.00 xFIP and strikeout rate above 24%. Their walk rate is a little above 8%, though. They have five arms under a 4.00 xFIP, so they can have a bullpen game if Varland yields some runs early.
Royals vs Twins Prediction, Betting Analysis
Look for Ragans to continue his consistency on the bump, and back the team who can hit lately in the Royals. Even if either Varland or Ober throws, I still have confidence in K.C. Neither should be able to keep this lineup in check, as it has been solid throughout lately. Ragans and company can hold down the fort, especially if Buxton continues to be out on Wednesday.
Pick: Royals ML +110 | Play to -130 |
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