The Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees will continue their chase for the Commissioner’s Trophy in ALDS Game 1 on Saturday, Oct. 5, at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 6:38 p.m. ET, and the game will be broadcast on FOX and Max.
The ALDS Game 1 pitching matchup features Michael Wacha for the Royals and ace Gerrit Cole for the Yankees. It's a mismatch on paper considering Wacha has to face the likes of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto — but is it really? Find out in my Royals vs Yankees prediction for Game 1 below.
Royals vs Yankees Prediction
- Royals vs Yankees picks: Yankees -1.5 (+110 | Play to -110)
My Royals vs. Yankees best bet for ALDS Game 1 is on Yankees -1.5, where I see value at +110. The best line is available at DraftKings, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Royals vs Yankees Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | +170 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | -205 |
Royals vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Michael Wacha (KC) | Stat | RHP Gerrit Cole (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 13-8 | W-L | 8-5 |
| 3.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.8 |
| 3.35 / 4.05 | ERA /xERA | 3.41 / 3.59 |
| 3.65 / 4.14 | FIP / xFIP | 3.69 / 3.99 |
| 1.19 | WHIP | 1.13 |
| 14.6% | K-BB% | 17.9% |
| 38.6% | GB% | 38.7% |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 111 |
| 102 | Location+ | 101 |
Kenny Ducey’s Royals vs Yankees Preview
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview: Uphill Battle Against the Yankees
Despite the fact that we've seen numerous teams advance through the wild-card round and go on to the World Series in numerous years, these sides have had a 50% success rate in the Division Series since the expansion of the playoffs in 2012. For the Royals, this series against the Yankees will be an uphill battle considering their 2-5 record against the Yankees this season — and one of those wins came as the result of an unfathomable blown save by closer Clay Holmes.
Kansas City is here as a result of its pitching staff, hitting just .219 in the wild-card round against the Orioles with three runs crossing the plate in two games. Its staff, ranked eighth all season long, posted a stellar 0.50 ERA in 18 innings, with the bullpen yielding just two hits and three walks over 7 2/3 scoreless innings.
Michael Wacha will be the one to get the ball to kick things off, coming off a tidy 2.60 ERA in the month of September. After a tumultuous August, Wacha produced a .203 Expected Batting Average and .351 Expected Slugging in five outings, shutting down some capable offensive clubs like the Twins and Guardians, and remained a stalwart in the walks department next to an improved 23.4% strikeout rate.
After a heavy dose of ground balls to begin the year, the veteran has brought his rate of contact on the round back down under 31% in the last two months which has proven to be a winning strategy for many pitchers this season, but brings about plenty of risk in a small park like Yankee Stadium. The good news is that he's ranked inside the top 10% of all hurlers in hard-hit rate, bringing that number down under 30% in September from an already-hot 32.5% for the year.
This offense will need to be careful about strikeouts, seeing a third strike in 24.2% of its plate appearances during the final month of the year but improving to the tune of a 19.4% strikeout rate in two games versus Baltimore.
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Watch Out for Bullpen Woes
The Yankees' offense remained a strong unit all season despite the team as a whole hitting a wall around the mid-way point. In September, they fell backwards with a 101 wRC+ to rank 12th in baseball. The good news is that they rose back to prominence with an 11.6% walk rate, but they punched out in a puzzling 23.5% of plate appearances and produced a brutal .137 Isolated Power.
The tough part here against Wacha is the fact that New York has ranked second in OPS to ground-ball arms all season long, coming in 62 points lower against fly-ball arms to rank sixth. Wacha's been excellent at limiting free passes this season, and has begun to strike out batters a bit more, and the hope here is that he pitches closer to his .416 xSLG for the season than the numbers he posted down the stretch.
New York shouldn't be all that worried about Cole, however, with the reigning Cy Young Award winner cleaning up his act in the last two months of the season to post a 2.25 ERA, backed by a stellar .215 xBA and .327 xSLG with continued growth in his strikeout rate. Cole, of course, owns a 2.93 ERA in 104 1/3 innings over his postseason career, striking out 23 batters over 18 1/3 innings with a 2.95 ERA in three outings during the playoffs in 2022.
The potential landmine here, of course, will be the bullpen. Despite ranking just outside the top five this season, New York's stable allowed a 3.67 ERA in September to rank 15th — though its heavy reliance on ground balls and strikeouts could come in handy against a Kansas City side that has preferred to hit fly-ball arms and owns numerous third-strike candidates. New York may have replaced its closer late in the year, but with Ian Hamilton back to full health and either Clarke Schmidt or Luis Gil joining the bullpen, things shouldn't get too far out of hand.
Royals vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Royals haven't been able to solve the Yankees' staff this season despite its volatility, hitting just .239 against New York with a brutal .651 OPS. Now, they'll attempt to do so on the road where their OPS has fallen by 62 points this season. Kansas City doesn't play in a park that's generally favorable to offenses, but it's been able to take advantage of its spacious dimensions by going for extra bases on balls hit to the gaps and dunking singles into the soft spots in the outfield.
New York's outfield ranked just 24th in Outs Above Average this season, sitting second worst in the last month of the season. But with less ground to cover and a lower rate of batted balls with a heavy strikeout arm on the hill, I think there's more than enough reason here to believe it can mitigate the risk. This bullpen also hasn't been nearly as bad as you'd think, and the matchup is fantastic for a stable that has fallen in love with ground balls and strikeouts.
I simply don't think this is an offense that can get much done against Cole and the Yankees' bullpen, especially after a terrible showing at the plate in Baltimore. While Wacha certainly stands a decent chance after his close to the year, I'm fearful of backing the under in this one with his profile bringing about the risk of some home runs.
It's always a risky proposition laying runs with a home favorite, but with so little expected of the Royals' offense the Yankees, we should get across the line.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+110)
Moneyline
We're seeing some sharp action hitting the Yankees on the moneyline, which is the likely reason this line has moved over 10 cents from the opener of -192.
Run Line (Spread)
While the Yankees have gone just 33-45 to the run line as home favorites, they rank ninth among teams with at least 23 games played in these situations. They're also 4-3 against the spread against the Royals this year, entering as favorites in every contest.
Over/Under
The sharp action is on the under in this one, and that's brought the line down from the opening number of eight runs to a consensus of 7.5. We've seen further action on the under, which could close at seven runs with the way we're trending.
Royals vs Yankees Betting Trends
- 89% of the bets and 96% of the cash on the moneyline is on the Yankees.
- 69% of the tickets and 65% of the money is on the over.
- 87% of the bets and 90% of the cash on the run line is on the Yankees.
Royals Betting Trends
- Royals are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- Royals are 44-37 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Royals' last 5 games.
Yankees Betting Trends
- Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Yankees' last 5 games.
- The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Yankees' 81 last games at home.
Royals vs Yankees Weather
