The Kansas City Royals have won four in a row and head into the week hoping to move into first place in the AL Central.
Kansas City will start Brady Singer, who had a rough time pitching to the Yankees in June and slogged through the month of August. He'll be opposed by Carlos Rodon, who coming off arguably his most dominant start of the year.
Let's get into my Royals vs. Yankees prediction.
Royals vs Yankees Prediction
- Royals-Yankees pick: Yankees First Five Innings -0.5 (-125 | Play to -135)
My Royals-Yankees best bet is on Yankees First Five -0.5, where I see value at -125. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Royals vs Yankees Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+152 | 8.5 -108/-113 | -1.5 -136 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-185 | 8.5 -108/-113 | +1.5 +115 |
Royals vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| Brady Singer (RHP) | Stat | Carlos Rodon (LHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-10 | W-L | 14-9 |
| 2.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 3.35/4.37 | ERA /xERA | 4.19/4.05 |
| 3.60/3.57 | FIP / xFIP | 4.30/4.14 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.22 |
| 16.1% | K-BB% | 19.1% |
| 48.7% | GB% | 32.5% |
| 84 | Stuff+ | 123 |
| 100 | Location+ | 97 |
Kenny Ducey’s Royals vs Yankees Preview
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview: Offense Struggling of Late
Singer's been the definition of a league-average pitcher this year, pitching to a ton of contact with a 48.7% ground-ball rate and a low 6.5% walk rate. As is the case with most arms like this, Singer's been prone to some painful outings where the hits begin to pile up. However, he can rest on the fact that the Royals' infield is first in the league with 34 Outs Above Average this year — even though they ranked just ninth in August.
The defense behind Singer is surely one of the leading reasons why he's been able to pitch around poor marks on contact like a .263 Expected Batting Average and a .425 Expected Slugging Percentage. He did bring his xBA down to a season-best .250 last month with a .400 xSLG, but it should be said that these are still just about average.
In the past two weeks, things have grown bleak at the plate. The Royals own a meek 74 wRC+, sitting inside the bottom five of the league, are struggling to take walks and hitting just .218 with a .136 Isolated Power. In a bit of good news, their .243 xBA over this span indicates a bit of bad luck, but even if they did play to their expected number, they'd still rank 16th in the game.
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Good Spot for Yankees
The Yankees will get some reprieve after running into quite a few left-handed pitchers over the past few weeks.
It's not just that the Yankees rank first in baseball against right-handers by wRC+, they're also sporting the third-best OPS in baseball against ground-ball pitchers and have thrived on contact with a .272 batting average. This is a trend that's stood the test of time over the course of the long season, and all the proof you need of this being a fruitful spot is in Singer's miserable outing against New York back in June when he coughed up seven runs on seven hits and a walk over 5 2/3 innings.
That should give Rodon some much-needed support, which could tip the scales even further in the Yankees' favor. Like the Royals, they have much to play for with a slim half-game lead in the AL East over the Orioles, and the left-hander has stepped up in a massive way down the stretch.
Rodon produced his best outing of the year in Texas last week, striking out a season-high 11 batters over six innings of one-hit ball. The one hit just was a home run, but the good news is that he's allowed just three homers since the beginning of August as his strikeout numbers continue to grow stronger.
That's important for a fly-ball arm like Rodon, particularly in a bandbox like Yankee Stadium. The Royals do rank sixth in OPS against fly-ballers this year, but that has been largely due to their ability to rack up doubles and triples inside larger ballparks. Rodon also had plenty of success pitching to the Royals a few months ago in Kansas City, allowing just a run on five hits over seven innings.
Royals vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
This should be a great spot to buy low on a Yankees team that has been victimized by left-handers this season, and has run into an inordinate number of them over the past few weeks.
The recent numbers would look much better if not for that, considering the Yankee have posted a splendid .459 xSLG against righties since the start of August.
Against a ground-ball pitcher, I expect the Yankees to hit plenty, and with Rodon meeting a weaker version of an already cold Royals offense, he should settle in quite nicely.
I'll back the Yankees to move in front early.
Pick: Yankees First Five Innings -0.5 (-125)
Moneyline
The Yankees seem to be the clear choice for most bettors here. We've tracked some sharp action coming in on New York, which has won five of its past eight at home.
Run Line (Spread)
The Yankees have covered the run line in just 44.6% of their games as home favorites, but that ranks inside the league's top 10. After a loss, however, they rank just outside the bottom five in the league with a 28-32 record against the spread.
Over/Under
The Yankees have played to the over at the third-best clip in baseball. As home favorites, they have gone over the total in 60.9% of their games. The over has cashed in each of New York's past five home games.
Royals at Yankees Betting Trends
- 89% of the bets and 81% of the money are on the Yankees on the moneyline.
- 82% of the bets and 80% of the money are on the over.
Royals Betting Trends
- Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
- Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Royals are 36-33 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Royals' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Royals' 75 last games at home
Yankees Betting Trends
- Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Yankees are 40-35 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Yankees' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Yankees' 68 last games at home
