On Tuesday, the Kansas City Royals and Washington Nationals will kick off a three-game series in the nation’s capital.
Kansas City (82-74) is in a dead heat for the final American League wild-card spot. The Royals hold the final spot and tied with Detroit for the second wild-card berth. The Royals have a one-game lead in this race but are just 2-8 in their last 10 games, currently on a seven-game skid.
Washington (69-87) has already been eliminated from contention this year and is just playing out the rest of the season. The Nationals are 17.5 games out of a wild-card spot and have nothing to play for besides their jobs for next season.
The Royals are currently -170 road favorites in a game with an over/under of 7.5 runs. Let’s dive into my preview for the Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals on Tuesday for my best bet on this matchup.
Royals vs Nationals Prediction
- Royals vs Nationals picks: Royals F5 -0.5 (-125 | Play to -135)
My Royals vs Nationals best bet is on the Royals F5 -0.5, where I see value at -125. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Royals vs Nationals Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-170 | 7.5 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +100 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+142 | 7.5 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -120 |
Royals vs Nationals Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Cole Ragans (KC) | Stat | LHP Mitchell Parker (WAS) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-9 | W-L | 7-10 |
| 4.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.3 |
| 3.24 / 3.30 | ERA /xERA | 4.44 / 4.38 |
| 3.00 / 3.46 | FIP / xFIP | 3.90 / 4.22 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 1.30 |
| 20.7% | K-BB% | 13.9% |
| 40.0% | GB% | 36.8% |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 88 |
| 100 | Location+ | 99 |
Cody Goggin’s Royals vs Nationals Preview
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview: Super Southpaw Ragans
Cole Ragans will get the start for Kansas City.
Ragans has looked like a budding ace in his first full Major League season. Through 180 1/3 innings pitched, Ragans has a 3.24 ERA, 3.30 xERA, and a whopping 217 strikeouts. The southpaw ranks in the 91st percentile among qualified pitchers in whiff rate and the 89th percentile in strikeout rate.
Outside of his great swing-and-miss stuff, Ragans’ other superpower has been his ability to avoid hard contact. Ragans ranks in the 80th percentile in barrel rate allowed, 78th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and 67th percentile in average exit velocity allowed.
The Royals have been slightly below league average on offense with a 98 wRC+. Among MLB offenses, they rank 14th in wOBA, 12th in SLG, 18th in OBP and 12th in ISO. The Royals are free-swinging, as they have the second-lowest strikeout rate in the league but also the third-lowest walk rate.
Kansas City also ranks seventh in hard-hit rate, fourth in average exit velocity, and 19th in barrel rate.
Washington Nationals Betting Preview: Don't Hit The Ball Hard
Washington’s starter will be 24-year-old lefty Mitchell Parker.
Parker has pitched well in his rookie season with a 4.44 ERA, 4.38 xERA, and 3.90 FIP in 146 innings. Parker has 128 strikeouts and a 1.30 WHIP on the year.
Among qualified pitchers, Parker ranks in the 23rd percentile in whiff rate and 31st percentile in strikeout rate — he's not a big swing-and-miss guy. However, he's an excellent command-and-control guy, ranking well above average in walk rate.
Parker has been below average in batted ball metrics, ranking in the 36th percentile in barrel rate allowed, 47th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and 26th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. He also ranks in the 22nd percentile in ground-ball rate this season.
The lineup ranks 24th in wRC+. They rank 23rd in wOBA, 24th in SLG, 28th in ISO, and 17th in OBP. They have the league's sixth-lowest strikeout rate and the seventh-lowest walk rate.
Washington doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard. They rank 27th in hard-hit rate, 30th in barrel rate, and 26th in average exit velocity this year. The Nationals hit the ball on the ground 46.1% of the time, which is the second-highest rate in baseball.
Washington ranks 25th in the league in wRC+ against left-handers with a mark of 86 compared to 94 against right-handers. They are also 25th in wOBA and 27th in SLG from this side of the plate, with the third-lowest walk rate.
Royals vs Nationals Prediction, Betting Analysis
Cole Ragans has been excellent this season, and I don’t foresee that changing against the Nationals.
Washington doesn’t hit the ball hard, which plays into Ragans’ hand. He may not get as many strikeouts as he typically would, but his ability to generate soft contact should go a long way in this matchup.
On the other side, I am more concerned with Parker.
Parker has struggled with hard contact this season and doesn’t strike batters out. With Kansas City's uber-low strikeout rate, I think the Royals may should bash the rookie righty.
My favorite bet on this game is taking the Royals on the first five innings run line at -125.
I think the Royals can cover -0.5 in these first five innings with their ace on the mound against a mediocre offense in Washington.
Pick: Royals F5 -0.5 (-125, Drafkings) | Play to F5 -0.5 (-130)
Moneyline
Washington is 69-87 on the season but 36-39 at home, as the Nationals have been much better in Nationals Park.
The Royals are only 37-38 on the road, as they have also won more in their home park.
I think the Royals win this game outright and would see some value at the current price of -170.
These two teams have comparable bullpens, so with the better starter and better lineup, I like taking Kansas City to win this game.
Run Line (Spread)
Both of these teams have been strong bets this season.
Washington is 86-70 against the spread overall and 41-34 ATS at home.
Kansas City is 83-73 ATS this year, including 40-35 on the road.
I don’t have a specific lean on the spread in this game. I could see this playing out as a close game or a comfortable Royals victory, but I don’t have enough of an inclination to bet on this spread.
Over/Under
Games at Nationals Park this season have leaned towards the under.
Unders are 39-36 in Washington this season and the Royals are 38-37 to the under on the road.
At 7.5, I would lean towards the under in this game.
Neither of these offenses is setting the world on fire this year, and both starters have been solid this season. I don’t feel strongly about this either way and think the number is priced right, so I’ll be staying away from this total.
Royals-Nationals Betting Trends
- The Royals are 2-8 on the moneyline in their past 1o games.
- The Royals are 0-5 on the moneyline in their past five games.
- The Nationals are 4-6 on the moneyline in their past 10 games.
- The Nationals are 1-4 on the moneyline in their past five games.
